Study Of The Groundwater Response In The North Chinaplain Under Background Of Long-term Climate Change Based On Numerical Simulation

As a kind of valuable natural resources,groundwater plays an important role in the development of global economy and social life. Itsvariation characters are not only affected byregional natural geographical environment, but also closely related to human activities and climate conditions. The North China plain is the political center and important grain production base of China.As the precipitation rateamong The North China plain variedsharply by climatic conditions, a research ongroundwater resources evolution and developing trend forecastwithlong-term climatic conditions isindeednecessary.This study used numericalsimulationmethod to assess the groundwater resources under currentclimate condition,and forecastdeveloping trend of groundwater flow field and dynamic change under differentclimate model in the future.It also analyzed the influence of groundwater flow field and budgetwith climate change,and explainedthe responding mechanism of NCPgroundwater circulation. The resultquantitative analyzed the composition and evolution of groundwater recharge and discharge,so thatit could providescientific guidance to groundwater resources exploitation and utilization.This paper presented two different climate patterns. Inpattern A, the temperaturerose1 ℃ and 2 ℃ respectively during the two periods of 2011-2020 and 2021-2050, and precipitation increased by 2% and 5% respectively in the same two periods. In pattern B,The temperaturerose 2℃ and 3℃ respectively, and precipitation increased by 3% and 7% respectively. According to the numerical simulation results andgroundwater budget analysis, under the condition of pattern A, the total recharge of groundwater was268.80×108m3/a, and the total discharge quantity is 295.57×108m3/a, recharge and discharge difference-26.77×108m3/a in 2050.The Under the condition ofpattern B, groundwater recharge was273.63×108m3/a, total excretion of 301.44×108m3/a, and recharge and discharge difference-27.82×108m3/a.The forecast results of groundwater flow field showedthat the overall trend of groundwater flow field in shallow aquiferhad not changed with the twodifferent patterns, but the overall water level indicated downward trend. In the piedmont region, water level fell about 5-10 m.Comparing to 2010, groundwater drawdown had expandedin some area.The water level of eastern and central plain slightly fell. In general, climate changehad little effecton the deep groundwater flow field with the water level drop about 0~5m.