The Prediction Explores Of Secondary Geological Disaster Caused By 5.12 Earthquake In Beichuan County

The earthquake is unable to accurately predict at present,but the secondary geological disaster can be through the establishment of database and the model for prediction.The grey system theory which used to set the prediction mathematical model is established to predict earthquakes produce secondary geological disasters in this paper, which using the relevant data recorded data and field investigation data in beichuan county.The Verhulst model can better secondary geological disaster caused by earthquake debris flow and landslide forecast.The GM-DM model was found to cannot be applied to the prediction.The debris flow predictive model: The average error was 9.71% after error correction predictive model.The landslide predictive model:The average error was 10.15%.The total geological disaster predictive model:The average error was 7.03%after error correction predictive model.The correlation degree was 0.6725 between the total disaster and debris flow; The correlation degree was 0.8249 between the total disaster and landslide;The correlation degree was 0.7573 between debris flow and landslide.The secondary geological disaster 5.12 earthquake --the debris flow and landslide will return to normal levels about 14 years and 11 years.The landslide of high frequency period and fast period of time than the high frequency of debris flow occurrence period and fast period of time,and the landslide stability is slow period shorter than the debris flows slowly.The total attenuation trend of secondary disasters and the attenuation trend of debris flow were basically identical. According to the specific condition of each period,the corresponding secondary geological disaster prevention or disaster relief measures were put forward accordingly.