Meteorological Drought Characteristics Research In Shandong Province

This article based on meteorological data from1951to2012of24meteorologicalstations in Shandong Province,discusses the change trend of the precipitation and the averagetemperature in recent62years with linear tendency estimate method and Mann-Kendall trendtest;Discusses and contrasts the characteristics of meteorological drought in ShandongProvince from the time characteristics of the drought, the spring drought characteristics,spatial characteristics and the frequency of drought based on the precipitation anomalypercentage and precipitation Z index and evaluates the applicability of the two indexes inShandong Province;Calculations and analyses the drought distribution probability and returnperiod, forecasts the drought years based on the theory of run and GM(1,1) model;Finally,establishes the drought disaster vulnerability evaluation index system combines withmeteorological drought characteristics in Shandong Province, estimates the drought disastervulnerability of each city in2011and proposes the corresponding drought resistance anddisaster mitigation countermeasures. The main research results are as follows:1. Shandong Province can be divided into relatively humid southeast and relatively drynorthwestern region; Precipitation from1951to2012have no significant change trend;Springand winter precipitation is on the rise as a whole, summer and autumn precipitation is on thedecline as a whole;The average temperature for many years increasing from northeast tosouthwest coastal inland; The annual average temperature series has a long-term upwardtrend;What’s the average temperature in four seasons are on the rise;The rate of warmingdiminishing from northeast to southwest coastal inland.2.Drought events have no obvious regularity over time in recent62years;Spring droughtfrequency is quite high in1986,2000,2001and2011;The drought trend in ShandongProvinceare:diminishing from western inland to eastern coastal,diminishing from the northeast to thesouthwest along the sides of45。,based on Pa and the precipitation Z index;The results of totalannual drought frequency and each level drought frequency based on Pa are all greater thanthe statistics results of the precipitation Z index; Taken together,Pa can reflect the droughtsituation in Shandong Province.3.The trend of diminishing from the southwest to the northeast coast in ShandongProvince is more obvious when the drought intensity is greater,continuous big intensity ofdrought will not occur in Shandong Province in the coming decades;Maybe,drought indrought or above level will occur in2021,2035,2051,2069in the next60years in Shandong Province;Theory of run can be applied well to characters of space distribution of drought,analysis and forecasting,and GM(1,1) model can be used in the prediction of droughtyear.So,we can choose method according to actual demand.4.Heze in extreme fragile levels in2011; Ji’nan, Qingdao, Zibo, Zaozhuang and other10cities in the strong weak level; the level of Dongying, Yantai, Weihai, Rizhao, Laiwu andBinzhou is fragile; Reference domestic drought planning and the actual situation of ShandongProvince,the corresponding drought relief measures are put forward.The research results can provide a certain amount of theoretical basis for the localdrought resistance and disaster mitigation.