Research On Coal-to-DME Project Investment Value Evaluation Based On System Dynamics And Real Options

In the energy structure of our country, coal resources as the main energy pillar, for the advancement of our country industrialization provide the necessary energy security, at the same time it made great contribution to our country’s rapid economic development the improvement of national living standard. In terms of the characteristics of coal resources in China, the energy structure of give priority to with coal will not change within a short time. Meanwhile, with the process of coal mining and utilization caused serious pollution to the environment, and restricts the process of our country sustainable development. Faced with the two-sided of coal to the real social problems, it has become increasingly urgent in make full use of abundant coal resources and actively developing the green coal chemical industry to realize efficient, clean, low carbonization of coal utilization of demand.DME as a clean fuel of the21st century, it has the excellent combustion characteristic result in it has the irreplaceable characteristics in place of LPG and diesel. Coal to DME as one of the green coal chemical industry, in the it made coal turn to clean energy, at the same time it can effectively make up for the gap of oil of our country, and relieve the situation of the oil shortage, so it has important strategic significance to ensure the security of energy supply in our country.This paper applied system dynamics theory and method, and analyzed a variety of factors through coal to DME project operations, in order to build system dynamics model with the project investment value evaluation from the overall perspective, and use Vensim DSS to make the model simulation and validation, to get NPV--project investment standard value, and according to the change of the main variables to make sensitivity analysis for NPV, the results showed that the coal price and DME price have more obvious influence with NPV. And according to different coal price and DME price make economic feasibility analysis with the project.Base on the project investment standard value, this paper broke the constraint of the traditional investment evaluation methods, and applied the real options method to make flexible management play an important role on project investment evaluation, to build the real options model with binary tree, and got the project value of flexibility. Finally, this paper combined system dynamics and real options method to evaluate the investment value, and got the investment value of coal to DME project, to make the right judgement is formulated with the value of investment under full consideration of the uncertainty factors. The results showed that, this paper created evaluation model have certainly operability and reliability in theory and practice aspects, and provided beneficial reference for decision makers.