Combination Evaluation On Vulnerability Of Storm Surge In Coastal Provinces China

Coastal area, which is the most developed area in China, has an importantstrategic position during the development of China. However, with the global climatechanging, more frequent marine disasters have seriously affected the sustainabledevelopment of coastal area. Storm surge disasters, as the main marine disasters inChina, have become the important factors that influence the normal economic andsocial life in coastal area. The risk of storm surge disaster makes it become the focusof scholars.The research focus of natural disasters has gradually transferred to thevulnerability since1980s. Scholars believe that vulnerability is also one of the keyfactors that led to disaster losses and the difference of loses. Vulnerability analysis isan important bridge contact disaster and risk study, and vulnerability is closely relatedto the social and economic system. Unlike disaster-causing factors, whose relatedresearches mainly focus on its intensity and frequency, which is difficult to control,vulnerability could be reduced through adjusting social economic activities. Andreducing vulnerability is beneficial to reduce disaster losses and promote thesustainable development of coastal area.This paper introduces the rough set theory into the evaluation on vulnerability ofstorm surge disasters, and structures RST-CWM model through combining it with thecombination weighting method, then applies this model to assessing the vulnerabilityof storm surge disasters of China’s coastal provinces.Firstly, the article defines the related concepts of vulnerability, and clarifies therelationship between these concepts. Then it identifies the vulnerability factors ofstorm surge disasters of coastal areas. Secondly, this paper respectively analyzes theapplicability of rough set theory and combination weighting method to the assessmenton vulnerability of storm surge disasters, and builds the RST-CWM combination evaluation model with combining the advantages of two methods. Thirdly, based onthe analysis of disaster vulnerability related theory, combining the identificationresults of storm surge disasters’ vulnerability factor, considering the characteristics ofRST-CWM combination evaluation model, this article sets up evaluation index systemof the vulnerability of storm surge disasters of coastal area. Finally, it applies theRST-CWM combination evaluation model to assessing and analyzing thevulnerability of storm surge disasters of China’s11coastal provinces. The evaluationresults show that the RST-CWM combination evaluation model can effectivelycombine the advantages of the two methods to improve the credibility and accuracy ofevaluation, and the Descending order of vulnerability of storm surge disasters ofChina’s11coastal provinces is Shandong, Tianjin, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi,Liaoning, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hainan, Hebei, and Shanghai.The main innovation of the article is the structure of RST-CWM combinationevaluation model. On one hand, it introduces the rough set theory into the evaluationon vulnerability of storm surge disasters, which could eliminate superfluous indicatorsto increase the efficiency of the assessment on vulnerability of storm surge disaster.On the other hand, adopting combination weighting method to determine indexweight could avoid the one-sidedness of single methods to effectively improve theaccuracy and credibility of the evaluation conclusion.