Research On Land Use/Cover Change Of Shijiazhuang

It is very important to investigate the change of urban land use/cover becauseurbanization process could change urban environment quality when altering the surfacestructure of land use/cover. In this paper, we chose Shijiazhuang city, capital of Hebeiprovince, as case study. The transform of land use/cover in Shijiazhuang city was analyzedbased on GIS technology and Fragstats software and three scenes of Landsat TM satelliteimages recorded on1987,2001and2010. Images were classified into seven landuse/cover types using decision tree method for describing land use/cover characteristicsand change. Most appropriate landscape metrics were selected by principal componentanalysis to describe the landscape types transform and change during the year1987,2001and2010. The landscape expansion indices were calculated to analyze theexpansion situation of landscape type. Then the driving force for land use/cover wasanalyzed and the area during the year of2011-2020was predicted by Markov models andthe population in the year of2013-2020was forecasted by linear regression method.Results showed that:1) In the year of1987and2010, most land use/cover varied significantly. The area offarmland vegetation reduced by41%and low density impervious surface decreased by13%. All other land use/cover types increased. High density impervious surface was themajor landscape type in2010instead of cropland in1987.2) All landscape types transferred to high density impervious surface to variouscertain extents. Landscape boundary status of low and middle density impervious surfacebecame complex and the proportion of internal complex patches reduced. High densityimpervious surface had simple landscape boundary, complicated internal patches andenhanced connectedness. Landscape boundary complexity and patches agglomeration ofunexploited land increased. The shape of green space and water body had not remarkablechange but the aggregation degree increased, and they had opposite change inconnectedness. At last, expansion ranking of five expanded landscapes was high densityimpervious surface> unexploited land> green space> water body> middle densityimpervious surface.For the same kind of index, different landscape types had distinct grain size effect.And for various landscape indices, the grain size of the same landscape type also had obvious discrepancy. The appropriate grain size range of landscape type in the year of1987and2001were35m-40m, while the grain size range of the landscape type in the yearof2010was40m-45m.3) The predicted results showed that the area of high density impervious surface andwater body increased year by year, while the area of middle impervious surface, farmlandand unexploited land inclined. There was no change for low impervious surface and greenspace. The range of population was between3.09million and3.89million.