Research On Fuzzy EVM For Construction Project Under Uncertainty

With the rapid development of global economy, the engineering construction has entered the goldenage of high-speed development. But the cost and schedule control methods of construction project in ourcountry ignore the complex relationship between cost and schedule and fall behind other developedcountries. The earned value method (EVM) is an effective tool for integrated management of cost andschedule.But the EVM was developed for large defense programs by the United States so that themethod didn’t have specific steps for engineering construction projects in our country. During long-termresearch both domestic and abroad, the EVM itself has exposed some defects. The constructionenvironment of engineering construction project is complex and uncertain factors frequent occurrencenow. Project managers can’t obtain accurate earned value data. All above-mentioned reasons request usto take further research and optimization of the EVM.This paper is based on the EVM, and according to the characteristics of the engineeringconstruction project, activities will be given with different earned value measurement method. When theactivity’s completion date can’t be obtained accurately, use fuzzy method to get schedule data. On thebasis of a large number of paper researches, establish a fuzzy earned value evaluating and forecastingindex system framework, useα-cut fuzzy number ranking method to get performance evaluation result,in order to solve the realistic problems of making inaccurate judgment of cost and schedule performanceevaluation and development trend caused by incomplete cost and schedule information in constructionproject. Finally, give cost and schedule performance variance allowed range by using the principle ofstatistical. Appropriate measures should be taken when the variance exceeds the allowed range. Themethod provides detailed and feasible guidance for cost and schedule variance rectifying measures sothat project management personnel can get accurate and detailed project information under uncertainty.