The Characteristic Analysis And Forecasting Of Power Load Based On Fractal Theory

Grasping the change rule and trend of power load characteristic is the key to establish load forecasting model. Fractal theory is a non-linear system theory which has been developed in recent years. In the paper, fractal theory and methods have been applied to research of load characteristic and obtained certain accomplishment.Based on the fractal theory, the paper analyze load characteristic. It introduces the fractal dimension to describe the load curve, analyzes self-similarity and scale invariance through rescaled range analysis (R/S) , proves the stability of the load fractal characteristics, makes the quantitative analysis of the durability of load time series, and gives the primary judgment of the non-period cycle. Finally, based on the analysis of load characteristic, the model has been built by collage theorem and fractal interpolation algorithm, the 24_hours forecasting of loads have been realized and achieved favorable result.