Long-term Load Forecasting For North China On The General Construction Of Well-off Society

Electric power industries play an important role in the construction of well-off society.Nevertheless, the structure of economy and society changes greatly, which inevitably leads toincessant change and interact of all the factors that affect the demand of electric power. Long-termelectric power demand forecasting differs from short-term forecasting in that it considers theeconomic factors and social development comprehensively. This paper analyzes and assesses thesituation of social-economic and electricity consumption in North China synthetically at first. Thenthe electricity power demand in 2010, 2015 and 2020 is forecasted with long-term power demandforecasting method. At last, we analyze all kinds of factors that have important effect on electricpower demand in the construction of well-off society and market economy reformation, such as GDP,industrialization, urbanization and informationization which are highly related to electricityconsumption. On the basis of synthetic analysis, this paper applies multi-regression model toforecasting electric power demand, and the forecasting result shows relatively high reliabilitycompared with that of traditional methods and other researches.