| Business cycle is a business fluctuation phenomenon that is revolving in national economic circulation operation, it shows the alternative course of overall economic activity or dull. Research on business fluctuation is a very important field of macroeconomics. The economic development practice of China indicates that, since China began to enter industrialized process with extensively economic construction in 1953, the national economic circulation of China arises and falls, and demonstrates the prominent cycle fluctuation.Aggregate demand fluctuation is the important cause of business fluctuation, consumption, investment, imports & exports are regarded as important components of aggregate demand, under Multiplier-accelerator interaction, the expansion and contraction of consumption, investment, imports & exports will have an important influence on business fluctuation. On the basis of national income identity, Multiplier-accelerator model, IS-LM-BP model, AD-AS model, output gap model etc, we use econometric models to analyse the interactions between business fluctuation and consumption, investment, imports & exports of China. Before reform, only investment had remarkable influence on business fluctuation, while consumption and imports & exports hadn't remarkable influence on business fluctuation, business fluctuation was the result of investment fluctuation of China. Since reform, there are long and steady dynamic equilibrium relationships and short-term fluctuation relationships between business fluctuation and investment, imports & exports of China. Since 1990s, there are long and steady dynamic equilibrium relationships and short-term fluctuation relationships between business fluctuation and consumption. Since reform, the interaction between business fluctuation and consumption of China rises quickly, consumption becomes the most sensitive factor of affecting business fluctuation, the interaction between business fluctuation and investment drops to some extent, but it is still the important strength of affecting business fluctuation, consumption and investment are two main strengths of affecting business fluctuation of China, the interactions between business fluctuation and imports, exports are small, the interaction between business fluctuation and net exports is not obvious.Keynes' effective demand theory provides the theory foundation for government to intervene in macroeconomics, the practice of economic development in variouscountries indicated that, government adjust and control macroeconomics against cycle is the important factor which affects business fluctuation. On the basis of positive research, we use Granger-Causality test and set up the policy equation model, from the angles of macroeconomic policy and forecasting and pre-warning of business fluctuation, and analyse the interactions between business fluctuation and consumption, investment, imports & exports of China. It wants to slow down economic fluctuation range, and extension the prosperity phase of business cycle fluctuation, and avoid economic "big rise and big fall" in future, we must make investment steadily and expand consumption, consumption policy cooperating with investment policy, finance policy cooperating with monetary policy, and found consumption, investment, imports & exports forecasting and pre-warning systems, adjust and control business fluctuation against cycle initiatively. |
