| China's house market has experienced great changes since its cancellation of the welfare housing policy in 1998, with an overall increase in urban house investment, house sales, as well as house price of which, in some cities, the accelerating speed amounts to 20 per cent annually. The changes have received enough attention from the government, enterprises, professionals and specialists, and mass media. Unfortunately, however, recent studies on the country's house market and house price have confined themselves to general qualitative analysis. The lack of quantitative an analysis and empirical study, and the resulting absence of reliable analyzing tools and modeling simulation have made it hardly possible for people to know clearly what factors house price is sensitive to and how these factors influence house price. Even worse, as a result of such theoretical deficiency, decision making becomes rather difficult in departments concerned and real estate developing companies due to unavailability of effective scientific grounds and technical support. At the same time, effective instructions are not available to investors in the market. All these have brought negative effects on the healthy and sustainable development of the nation's house industry, and therefore have pressed an urgent need for the establishment of an urban house price model which helps to analyze house investment and house policies based on a comprehensive study of the relations between house demand and house supply. The dissertation presented is just one of the attempts to establish such a model as well as to solve the above problems. Targeting urban house price, it tries to find out the main influential and dynamical factors on house price. It also adopts empirical approaches so as to explore the inherent mechanism of house price. By doing this, an effective house price model may be developed and the departments concerned, the real estate companies, banks, and consumers may find it helpful as one of the analyzing approaches arid tools in their regulation and control, business management, management of credit, and investment decisions respectively.Analysis of the influential factors affecting urban house price level, attempts have been made to establish a house price model and to study empirically the urban house price with such illustrative variables as density of urban residents urban non-agricultural population, GDP, per capita disposable income, floorage of commercial house sold, per capita house coverage, and Engle coefficient. Statisticsused are those of 20 big and medium-sized cities of the country from 1998 to 2003. Results of the empirical study indicate that two factors, i.e., urban non-agricultural population and per capita disposable income, exercise significant influence over urban house price, which is identical to the overseas analytical findings. In addition, the regression model has been adopted to estimate theoretical house prices in 6 cities of the country, and a comparison is made between the theoretical and real house prices.As has mentioned above, this dissertation is just one of the first and preliminary attempts to explore the house price issue which is rather complex and whose study needs to be made in social and economic backgrounds. Statistics collected and used here are limited in the sense of time span and area coverage, and therefore, the author believes that there is still great room for improvement in the approaches adopted and results achieved in the dissertation. To further related empirical studies, more efforts will be made on the part of the author. |
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