Analyse On Trade Effects Of China-Thailand Vegetable And Fruit Products Zero Tariff

In the past decade of years areasal economic integration has developed rapidly. China egage in the course of REI passionfully, brougt the China-Thailand vegetables and fruits zero tariff agreement into effect in Oct,2003. Vegetables and fruits we import from Thailand increased rapidly after implement of zero tariff. The analysis of China-Thailand vegetable and fruit zero tariff's trade effect helps us to estimate the substantial effect, provide advice for policy constituted.Use the partial equilibrium to analyse the trade effect when partner country is underproduction and production difference. Establish partial equilibrium models to analyse the trade effect of free trade areas. When partnership is underproduction the establishment of FTA have trade diversion effect, when it is production difference trade diversion effect is damaging or improving welfare of host country.Analyse China and Thailand's vegetable and fruit trade, calculate China-Thailand's export similarity index and import and export similarity index. Combine with China-Thailand's important vegetables and fruits's market structure to ascertain bilateral competition and complementarity relationships. The competition is low,complementary is strong between them. The main competition markets are Japan and America.Analyse the tariff favourable and non-tariff favourable taking by the zero tariff, choose and confirm the most important products according to the trade scale, trade competitive and 2004 trade fact of China. Dry cassava, fresh longan, fresh durian, dry longan or longan aril and dry or fresh mangosteen are the most important products.Make use of time series models to estimate trade quantity of "if not implement zero tariff'compute the effect of zero tariff to China. Estimate the trade quantity of "if not implement zero tariff'under time series and constant market share models, compute the trade effect under the two means. Zero tariff induce trade creation effect to fresh durian and dry or fresh mangosteen, trade diversion effect to fresh longan and dry longan or longan aril. Dry longan or longan aril's trade diversion effect increase welfare of our country.