Integrated Pre-warning Systems Of Enterprise Financial Crisis Based On Fuzzy Election

To present, more and more businesses meet with the financial failure. In fact, the failure is accumulated by financial risk for a long time, so it's very important that the managers find the cause and alerting in time. Facing with the alerting, the managers may take the available actions as soon as possible to prevent the occur or to decrease the loss of enterprise's financial crisis. So it's necessary for the internal managers to build effective business financial failure warning model. This paper tells the level of business financial risk, the character and function of warning model by analyzing the cause and show of producing failure. Then, I predict the financial condition by several typical models based on abundant SanPu's financial information. In the course of applying the models, I finding the shortage of quantitative and qualitative models, then I tell the necessity of building an integrated fuzzy warning model. Secondly, the paper builds the system of financial risk indices by analytic hierarchy processing. On the basis of the Edward Altman's Z-score discriminate model which is widely used in the west, this article establishes an integrated fuzzy warning model of corporation financial failure by adopting those indices. At the same time, the paper also verifies this model by the information of SanPu. At last, the paper tells the advantages and shortcomings of integrated fuzzy warning model. And in the course of applying the model, I should take a serial of relevant measures.