| The project post-estimation are developing later in our country.It has been the developing state in the construction engineering project ,and relevant theories and methods are not very elaborate,the uniform system of post-estimation are not set up yet.By economy sistuation today,it is a solution which improves and perfect means for the system of the constructional investment project post-estimation. In this paper,We intruduce the concepts purposes and methods of the post-estimation..By using these methods,We post-estimit for Caddy product project FAW-VW. Caddy produt project FAW-VW has been worked out FS in 2003.8 and has been run in 2004.12.Now ,because the product's market amound is poor,it has stop work temporaryly.So according this actual runing status,using the theoretical system and ways of the post-estimation.We post-estimate for this project.By the Post-estimation for the Caddy product project FAW-VW.We found actual runing is compared with FS,it has deviation and existing problem.We anlyses this reason,take propose and solution,which prove the scientific basis for decider. In the project post-estimation,We firstly introduce the survey of this project and the main data and conclusion of the FS.With actual product ,using the method of comparison,We found it is overoptimist for market estimation in FS.So it has big deviate between planning outputs and actual outputs. By the anaysis for the domestic car's market feature and the FAW-VW product strategy,We think it is not fit on the product election with the market developing trendancy and new industry policy. By the anaysis for the market state,opponents,life period of Caddy product, based on the market forcasting,output per year is adjusted as bellow: Caddy product output plan in every annual unit:piece Name 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131.6LCaddy 2000 12000 27000 32000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 We again analyse the ecomony for this project based on above output,the main economy index as bellow: FNPV(ic=10%) -187.19millions RMB FIRR 8.99% Pt(Reclaim period) 7.32 years ? auxiliary index Investment profit rate 8.40%(2009) According above analysis,this project is un-feasible on economy, it need adjust further. This project is the PQ35 ealier project, Caddy product has some market potentiality,We suggest reserving this project, ensure this PQ35 Project can keep runing unobstriectedly by add up investment and new product. We think Futrue B6 can be a new adding product by the analysis for the FAW-VW product strategy and the market state.And according the anaysis for the market state oppentens,market share of the Future B6 product ,We think output per year of the Caddy product will be adjust as bellow based on adding Future B6. unit:piece Name 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2010 2010Caddy 2000 12000 27000 32000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000Future B6 24000 38000 45000 50000 50000 50000 50000 We again analyse the ecomony for this project based on hasing been adjust output,the main economy index as bellow:FNPV(ic=10%) 3110millions RMB FIRR 21.02% Pt(not including construction) 5.40 years ? auxiliary index Investment profit rate 30.24%(2010) The data of analysing results meet the needs of protery demand.This scheme is feasible. By adding new product Future B6 ,the old planning output of Caddy product project can ensure.All index of the project are optimise than the average data that of auto vacation. It will be a feasible investment. |
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