Research On Demand Forecasting Method About Talented Persons Grasping Science And Technology Of Our Country's Large Petrochemical Enterprises

In 21st century, the competition among the enterprises is the competition about talented persons. The continuously hankering for creativity from enterprises makes the creative persons become the contest focus of enterprises. For the influence of internal and external factors, petrochemical industry will need a lot of science and technology talented persons in the future, and the quantities of demand will change all the way. Therefore, making a good program for science and technology talented persons will have important effect for construction of the science and technology talented troop. Forecasting the future demanding quantities of science and technology talented persons is keystone and difficulty for human resource programming of large petrochemical enterprises. But the former methods of demand forecasting all have some shortcomings in scientificalness, objectivity, accuracy, so that they can't properly satisfy the request of demand forecasting of science and technology talented persons of petrochemical enterprises. For this, through the analysis about external and internal environment of Chinese large petrochemical enterprises, the main factors influencing demand of talented persons are found out in this paper, and layer structure model of main influence factors is built up; then, the weight of main influence factors are calculated by using gray layer analysis method, and the forecasting mode of science and technology talented persons is established according to MarKov chain method. Finally, the quantity of talented persons demanded by one petrochemical enterprise from 2005 to 2007 is forecasted by using the model, and the result of forecast is adjusted according to the weight of the main influence factors. This paper concrete analyzes main influence factors in demand forecasting model according to determining nature analysis method and system analysis method, confirms the weight of the main influence factors according to fixed quantity analysis method and MarKov chain demand forecasting model, researches a specific example according to the method combining theory with practice. The main results obtained in this paper are: (1) The demand-forecasting model of science and technology talented persons of large petrochemical enterprises is established based on MarKov chain. (2) The method using gray layer analysis method to determine the weight of the main influence factors is put forward.