Analysis Of The Developing Trend Of The Commodity Housing Residences Market Of Chengdu

The real estate market of China had been heated progressively since 2002, after the rising by a wide margin of 2003, the amount of the increase of price of national commodity housing from January to September of 2004 was still up to 13%, the average price of commodity apartment reaches 2777 yuan /square meter. Compared with that at the end of 2002, in two years, this price goes up more than 25%. At the same time, the prosperity of the real estate market has been prevailing from some coastal areas in the southeast to the whole country gradually. Therefore different opinions appeared, that whether the real estate market is overheated or foamed, whether it's according to the rules of macroeconomic development, whether it's favorable to unite stability of the society. Meanwhile, governments at all levels have issued a great deal of policies and regulations to adjust and control the macro economy (especially on real estate market), which makes the real estate market prospect complicated and confusing.Chengdu is an important city of the western region, the key city of the southwest of China, with history more than 2300 years, total population more than 10 million, pleasant climate, rich latural conditions, which makes its economic radiation range covers the whole southwest area. The (?)enign development of the real estate market of Chengdu, especially market of commodity housing esidences plays an important role for the development of national real estate market and even macro-economy. To analyzing and forecasting the commodity housing residences market of Chengdu 11-sided, systematically, scientifically and accurately is the aim of this thesis.Based on the statistical analysis of the supply and demand in the commodity housing residences market of Chengdu, combined with the impacts of macro adjustment and control policies on this market, the internal rules is systematically studied between the CREIS (China Real Estate Index ystem), the carrier of the state of development of commodity housing residences market of Chengdu,and the macroeconomic index. Accurately forecasting is made on the development trend of the commodity housing residences market of Chengdu.First of all, the investment situation, land and housing supply in the commodity housing residences market is statistically analyzed, the developing situation of this market under macro adjustments and controls in 2002 is described in this paper. Then, based on the report, "the purchasing behavior of Chengdu resident", it is studied the kinds of demands and hobbies to product performance of various purchasing colony. Meanwhile by combining the qualitative analysis with the quantitative, it is discussed the influence of the commodity housing residences market on the development of macro-economy. By Person's coefficient correlation model, Granger causality model and FRI (Fuzzy Rules Induction using the Group Method of Data Method), the internal rules between the CREIS and the macroeconomic index of Chengdu is studied. Finally, it is predicted the development of the commodity housing residences market of Chengdu in 2005, which can be referenced by governments, banks, real estate developers and relevant industries.