| Finance is the core of modern economy. Sustainable, stable and efficient operation of finance can vigorously guarantee development of modern economy. Therefore, risk prevention and supervision of banking—the subject of financial activities, has become the most important component for modern economic management and operation, which is greatly related with normal and efficient operation of modern economy. Especially, the tendency of financial globalization makes banking risk control and supervision to become an extensive concern for modern economic theory and real economic activities. Concerning international banking risk, and in view of combined study of risk and supervision, this thesis tries to make theoretic study, and forward some blue prints designed for such supervision. Specific thinking clue of this thesis: To clarify connotations of banking risk through study of fundamental theory and practice, to analyze mechanism of banking risk formation, and to probe into supervision mechanism of banking risk so as to promote sustainable and stable development of national economy. This thesis is divided into four parts: Part I: General introduction to banking risk and supervision. The first section of this part mainly analyzes the characteristics of banking risk. In normal conditions, the form of earlier existence of banking risk is concealed, imperceptible, dispersed, and partial, and the formation of banking risk is a process of accumulation to grow out of nothing, expand from small to big, and develop from partial to whole, which will become abrupt risk as centralized reflection as soon as the quantity of the risk reaches to some degree, and further lead to crisis. The second section of this part mainly carries out a theoretic study on cause of formation of baking risk. In the aspects of information economics and game theory, it analyzes formation of banking risk. With information non-parallelism in financial field, banks have to envisage risk formation at any time, which can be respectively expressed on micro and macro sections of banking, e.g. ethic risk and counter-flow selection risk for commercial banks in micro section; and risk for banking system with Domino Effect in macro section, etc. It analyzes formation of banking risk in the aspects of limitation of economic subject and opportunist tendency, and limited by the limitation reason of economic man, it leads to decision-making and behavior failure and formation of risk. Based on opportunist tendency, the economic subject also envisages formation of risks such as the Ethic Risk. To analyze formation of banking risk in view of socio-economic environmental factors, the implementation of transaction contracts on financial resources performed by banks and other economic subjects in banking business activities is not complete under the conditions of market economy featured by social labor division and diversification of transaction, and therefore, risks occur in business activities. Further, such economic and environmental fundamentals as scarcity of banking financial resources, technical development level, capital reserve, economic scale, and social credit and ethics, etc. may all generate banking risks at various conditions. The third section of this part concisely summarizes existing supervision systems of the world. Different countries in the world employ different supervision systems, which will be decided by different political and economic systems, different currency credit development level, different financial systems, and different national traditions and legal customs. Now, the existing supervision systems in the world generally refer to four types of multi-element system, binary system, unitary system, and international supervision system. Part II: Background for formation of banking risk. On the one hand, due to vigorous development and transnational companies after the World War II,the international finance become integrated, and multi-element development of international financial center is accelerated, and financial innovations of banking come into being one after another. When promoting the financial efficiency, the financial innovations also produce great impact on generation and developme3nt of financial risks. On the other hand, different countries implements diversified banking supervision, and their supervision measures lack effectiveness, which also objectively "Opens a door to convenience"for formation of banking risks. Part III: Case analysis of international banking risks. Through analysis on three typical cases of the American Bank Bankruptcy Event, the Continental Illinois National Bank Squeezing Agitation, and the Former Federal German SMH Bank Risk Event, this part, on the one hand, expounds that with the international economic and financial competition and development, the potential risks of international banks grow and accumulate with each passing day. On the other hand, four warning points are obtained from case analysis of international banking risks: One is the banking operation has high performance of liabilities, which may lead to insufficient public confidence with slight carelessness, and therefore, squeezing activities may occur; secondly, to maintain certain debt clearing capacity of the bank is an important measure to prevent risks; thirdly, once formed, banking risk will quickly spread over and propagate to cause confusion of the sector; fourthly, it is very important for banking supervision. Part IV: Probe into construction of effective supervision mode of banking in China. Based on thorough discussion and demonstration of banking risks and supervision, it comes onto the final stage for settlement of problems. This part submits the author's own idea of reform on how to construct the effective banking supervision mode in China. Main thinking clue is that based on transferring characteristics of banking risks in China, it forwards the general thought on how to regulate the supervision system, and how toestablish omni-directional effective banking supervision system in China. The first section of this part mainly analyzes transferring characteristics and forms of expression of banking risks in China. Under traditional system of planning economy, the government will arrange all economic activities, therefore, the economic risks will be generally expressed as the risks of the state. After the system of market economy is established, with continuous deepening of marketization, the behavioral capacity of economic subject is also continuously improved, the risks should be transferred and dispersed gradually from the state to all local economic subjects. However, economic transform in China is a long-term complicated task, and due to existing systematic defects and incompleteness of reform, the risks have not been fully transferred onto each economic subject, and instead, they are integrated in the financial field, forming banking risks, which makes the banking risks in China to present strong transferring characteristics as a centralized reflection of risks for reform activities during the transferring period. Now main forms of expression of banking risks in China are: Credit risk is main form of the risk; capital-floating risk should not be neglected; and system risk is the specific form of risk envisaged presently. The second section of this part briefly summarizes generation and course of development of modern financial supervision in China. The third section of this part forwards general thinking on how to construct omni-directional effective banking supervision system in China. Firstly, currency authority should be taken as core of supervision, which should undertake the task of supervision over subjects of banking, securities, and insurance sectors; secondly, internal supervision of commercial banks should be taken as the basis of supervision, which will take responsibility for various risk prevention and supervision as the baking itself; thirdly, the social supervision consisting of public audit, specialized evaluation organizations, governmental financial department, trade union, and news media should be... |
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