| Since the repid development of the Telecom Carriers in China, nowadays, there are undergoing tremendous changes in Telecom industry. The carriers are suffering a fierce competition, which leads to both market shrinking and price depreciating. In 2007 the latest report of ANALYSES shows that, in global telecom carriers the loss of revenue was in common, from 12.1 percent in 2006 to 13.6 per cent in 2007. Especially serious in Asia, nearly 20 percent of the loss occurred, which had made negative influence on telecom carriers' profit. In this condition, the only way is to carry on Revenue Assurance (RA) project, which could help carriers to reduce loss and costs, raise management level and profit.To begin with, this paper focuses on Revenue Assurance, which is data quality and process improvement methods that improve profits, revenues and cash flows without influencing demand; What's more, this paper pays attention to Business Activity Monitoring (BAM) system, which is indispensable to Revenue Assurance Product. It plays a role on monitoring current state of the target system, showing the changes on the data with the statistics, improving the end-to-end process; In sum, after doing a mass of research on auditing methods of General Settlement System (GSS) and validating the methods with the rude data from the product system, it turns out the truth. The vast majority of data are based on the time in telecom industry; therefore, the system should be time-series forecasting methods as its theoretical basis. Only doing quantitative anlysis of historical data, building forecasting model for data trend, is the guarantee effective monitoring and control, also the core of designing BAM system.With the time-series model, this paper first proposes the idea about Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA) on BAM system. With MATLAB and MFC technology, mass of work has been firstly done on simulation and practice the ARMA model into BAM system, which enhances the effect on forecasting data result. |
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