The Research Of The Operation System Of Limited-area Numeric Weather Forecasting For Aviation

The numeric weather forecasting has got a great success in the last years, with the development of aerography, physics, computer and mathematics. The accuracy of the numeric weather forecasting is computing ascending steadily. Now the short-term forecasting is obviously better than the subjective forecasting and the usable time of prognosis is 7 days. The forecasting content includes not only prognosis as in the past but also the forecasting of various weather factors and weather phenomena. As the most essential method of fixed time, fixed point and quantitative forecasting, numeric weather forecasting has became the primary technical way of the aviation weather forecasting. This article has made an elemental explore combining closely practical requirement for aviation and material computing resource and environment, which is based on the newest result and material of the domestic and overseas numerical forecasting research. The article is put forward that the operation system of finite-region numeric weather forecasting for aviation should include processing of data, limited-region forecasting, the mesoscale numeric forecasting database, the image management of numeric forecasting production, the explain and use of the forecasting production and the statistical detection. The project has the strong real-time,the automated level high, the versatility good, openness strong, the reliability high, the performance-to-price ratio is superior,the easy to installs and operate and easy to maintain the management characteristic. The operation system of finite-region numeric weather forecasting for aviation is a Meso-scale Numerical Weather Forecast, which is based on the Fifth-Generation PSU/NCAR Meso-scale non-hydrostatic Model which is named MM5 , lateral boundary conditions of the system are generated from the output of the T213 model of the National Meteorology Center (NMC) and the routine observation data of surface and high levels, which is running on the system of the pc-cluster TC1700 of Dawn Corporation . Following the configuration of MM5, the system consists of triple-nested grids with the resolutions of 135km , 45km and 15km respectively , and it utilizes 23 vertical full-sigma( a)levels. This project makes it true that the medium-term numeric forecasting model (T213) nest mesoscale numeric forecasting model(MM5), and it mesoscale model every 3 hours and ensures change the lateral boundary of real time of the numeric weather forecasting in the existing communication condition.This paper analyses the parallel computing characteristics of the typical finite-region model, MM5, does some research on the mechanisms of multiple-grid nesting, domain decomposition, communication and optimization, and gives the test results on the pc-cluster TC1700 of Dawn Corporation. Finally, the article analyzed the forecast result of temperature and precipitation in January, 2006 to June, 2006 in the Center of Meteorological Observatory of Guanghan airport in CAFUC , and analyzed the result of Numeric Weather Forecasting and Atmospheric Numerical Simulation the strong precipitation process occur in a Sichuan basin in August, 2003 8～10. The result showed, that the system had the strong stability and the usability, that the forecast effect of the distribution of space and time of meteorological element and so on precipitation, temperature is good.