The Statistical Forecast System Of Air Pollution For Guangdong Province

The development of city environmental air pollution forecast is not only an effective measure to protect multitudes' healthy and mobilizing public to participate in environment protections but also a commonweal work that can improve masses' living quality and embody the government's image. The air pollution forecast could predict future air quality and releases air pollution forecast. It provides masses the service of environmental quality information that can protect the public in good condition and guide them to take part in the protection of the environment more effectively.The Statistical Prediction Method of air pollution which bases on analysis the relationship between the air Concentration of Pollutants and the weather condition concentrated by metrical at the same condition , e.g. mathematic analysis on the weather factors ,weather process and so on. Then we build a reliable statistical relationship or math model and use it. Basing on the air pollution metrical results, the metrical results and forecast results of weather conditions and weather factors, we calculate and predict the future Concentration of air Pollutants.To use The Statistical Prediction Method of Air Pollution not need master the mechanism of the pollution how to change, nor does it master the Materials Calculation on pollutant source. Assuming, that the Concentration of Pollutants' change mostly affected by the changing weather conditions, and this assumption is tenable in most instance .Via analyzing the correlation changing rules, we can set up a correspond stat model. In brief, the Air Pollution Statistical Prediction Methods which is practicable achieves easily especially on the complexion that the measure of pollute fountains is not concatenation on line, the origins of pollute fountains are complex and multiplicity, the transfer mechanism of the contamination is not perfect at present.At present, there are only five cities which are major cities carry out the air pollution forecast in Guangdong province ,the other sixteen cities not do it because of some reasons. In order to forecast the whole province's air pollution more exactly, a system which could forecast the whole province's air pollution is required urgently. The writer Research and develop the Statistical Forecast system of Air pollution for Guangdong province base on the Statistical Forecast methods system of Air pollution, and reference to Private work experiences and the other Forecast Systems of Air pollution .The Statistical Forecast system of Air pollution based by PRESS forecast model, its arithmetic use FORTRAN program, and the whole system use VB program. Its functions include the select of forecast used data, formula saving, forecast result show, subjective forecast, save and print. This system has passed the test and met the criterion of air pollution index forecast quality which ordain by the China weather bureau.