Study Of The System Dynamics Model Of Internet Worm Propagation

With the popularization of Internet application, threats of Internet worm is increasing in the computer system security and network security. It has caused great losses to the society and economy, so Internet worm research has become an important topic in the field of network security.Internet worm propagation model is the theoretical basis of analyzing and preventing Internet worm. However, in the existing Internet worm propagation models, many specific factors have been neglected, which influence the process of Internet worm propagation. With the Internet system becoming more and more complex, Internet worm propagation system has become a nonlinear complex dynamic feedback system. System dynamics theory and methods are adapted to describing the characteristics of higher-order, non-linear and multi-loop complex systems. So it is a novel idea to study the Internet worm propagation system by using system dynamics theory and methods, and it has some guiding significances to the study of novel Internet worm propagation model.In the aspect of defending Internet worm, it is a very effective way to defend vicious worm actively by using friendly worm. However, the existing models of defending Internet worm by using friendly worm neglect of the relations between friendly worms and other constraints. Because the biological immune system is a highly distributed and strong self-learning system, which can discover and kill the foreign viruses actively and rapidly, while Internet worm immune system is used to protect computer networks from Internet worm attacking, they have many similarities in functions. So, in this paper, the novel concepts of mature friendly worm, memory friendly worm and bacterin friendly worm are presented according to the idea of biology immune, and a novel Internet worm immune model is built based on the novel concepts above.Based on system dynamics theory and methods in this paper, the complex influencing factors are studied deeply in the process of Internet worm propagation, a novel Internet worm propagation model(NWPM) is built, and a novel Internet worm immune model(IWIM) is built based on biological immune principle. According to the idea of biology immune and using a variety of friendly worms as the intelligent confronting agents to defend increasingly complex and ever-changing Internet vicious worms, a novel idea is proposed and it has some reference values for defending Internet worm propagation.(1) By analyzing deeply Internet worm propagation mechanism, the novel concept of latent period of Internet worm is proposed, and the new transition relations of hosts' states are built. Based on system dynamics theory and methods, a novel Internet worm propagation model is proposed, and it can depict deeply the characteristics of rapid propagation of Internet worm. As a result, a novel theoretical basis is built for preventing the propagation of Internet worm dynamically.(2) The novel Internet worm propagation model is simulated by using system dynamics software Vensim. According to the data of the three Internet worm outbreaks, the model is simulated respectively. Through the simulation experiments, the trend of Internet worm propagation may be analyzed and forecast from two aspects of quality and quantity. And also the important factors of influencing the process of Internet worm propagation are analyzed and discussed.(3) Based on NWPM model and the biological immune principle, three novel concepts of mature friendly worm, memory friendly worm and bacterin friendly worm are proposed. Then IWIM model is built by using system dynamics methods. So a new idea is proposed for defending the propagation of Internet worm dynamically.(4) IWIM model is simulated by using system dynamics software Vensim. In this model, Internet worm immune process is analyzed and forecast by considering three different cases, the three friendly worms can't vanish, the three friendly worms can vanish and whether the three friendly worms exist or not. Through a large number of simulation experiments, the influence of the three friendly worms to the process of vicious worms propagation is researched in interactive process of three friendly worms with vicious worms. So the valuable data and instructions are provided for defending the propagation of Internet worm dynamically.