The Research And Application Of Vehicle Routing Planning In Integrated Emergency Management System

All kinds of emergencies happen frequently in modern society, so people pay much more attention to Integrated Emergency Management System (IEMS) .All the big cities in China are building IEMS in recently years .At the same time, the traffic in cities is getting more and more crowded and the disposing of emergency is a problem that should be paid more attention to. The key to success in the disposing of emergency is to guarantee that the helping vehicles can arrive at the place of emergency in least time. So the research about Vehicle route System in IEMS is an important research field. This thesis researches and discusses the Route planning of vehicles in IEMS.This thesis introduces the research of IEMS and describes the application background of Route Planning research. The research is divided into two parts. One is to forecast the traffic in a limited period of time in the future(Short-term Traffic Forecasting) according to the observing status of the traffic in the past and at present. The other is to suggest the best route for vehicles according to the forecast.Many mathematical models are designed for Short-term Traffic Forecasting. ARMA model (Automatic Regression-Moving Average Conbination Model) in Time Sequence Algorithm can perform the Linear and Combinatorial Forecast according to observing status and interfering status in the past and at present. This model can be computed in a simple and convenient way. It can update the data constantly and it can be applied massively. But the accuracy will decline if the time interval for forecast is very small. The model in this thesis forecasts traffic flow in 30 minutes of time interval and it has better performance. On the other hand, when using Microscopic Traffic Model to describe the action of vehicles and stimulate the traffic in a meticulous way, the error will be big if the mimic time is long enough. Considering that vehicles run strictly by Traffic Rules in most circumstance, especially on the crowded downtown road, we can describe the action of vehicles on road and forecast the traffic flow in less than a 30 minutes time interval, supposing that vehicles run absolutely by traffic rules. This thesis makes a close combination of the two forecasting models and takes the forecasting value calculated by Time Sequence Algorithm as the initial value of Microcosmic Traffic Model. It can ensure that the accuracy of traffic forecast in both a long and short period.Based on the forecast, this thesis carries on a research on Route Planning Algorithm. That is to suggest the best route for Vehicles according to traffic flow in the time interval of the future and the static feature of the road. In order to increase the efficiency of the algorithm, this thesis improves the traditional Dijkstra Route Algorithm by using Raster and gets a good result.Then this thesis uses the Model above to improve the Vehicle Navigation Module in IEMS. This can provide the best route for emergency vehicles in IEMS. At last, this thesis describes the effect of applying the research result to IEMS.