| Currently, our county is in the key stage of reform and development, so official crimes will directly endanger the fair and regular competition order, affect the government’s credibility, destroy the social fairness and justice and impede the economic development. Therefore, construction of clean and honest administration as productivity to achieve the positive interaction between the construction and social economic development is becoming a common understanding. Constructing a forecast and early warning system of official crimes to accurately evaluate, scientifically forecast and keep away the risk of official crimes is not only helpful for the construction of legal soft environment, but also for the healthy development of regional economy. Constructing state functionaries’ forecast and early warning system of official crimes in this thesis is though the wide collection, comprehensive analysis of related information on official crimes, and tendency forecast and early warning of risk in a certain space-time range to achieve the resource prevention and effective control of official crimes. This thesis is divided into four parts to discuss the forecast and early warning system of official crimes according to the logical idea of why, what and how.The first part refers to the theory of meaning, mainly solving the question "why". This part, starting from official crimes, crime forecast, early warming of crime and systematic methods, elaborates the concept of forecast and early warning system of official crimes, and then from the perspective of feasibility in theory, macroscopical necessity and urgency in practice, comprehensively elaborates the value and practical meaning of construction to further understand the importance and urgency of accurate evaluation, scientific forecast and effective prevention of risk of official crimes.The second part and third part refer to ontology, mainly solving the problem "what". These two parts systematically elaborate the basic connotation, target positioning and characters of function of forecast and early warning system of official crimes and put forward three taches of the system including information collection and management of forecast and early warming, analysis and evaluation and issuance and feedback. The tache of analysis and evaluation mainly discusses the methods of analysis and evaluation, introduces the concepts of forecast and early warning system of official crimes, and draws lessons from domestic and foreign research achievements to summarize the main factors and indicators of the system in order to provide operation basis for practice.The fourth part is the theory of practice, mainly solving the problem "how", namely, this part, based on the theoretical research and combing the reality of combating corruption and building a clean government, explores the practice path of forecast and early warming system which is suitable for our country’s setting and function division of combating corruption and building a clean government organization, and puts forward construction mode of forecast and early warning system of official crimes with discipline inspection and supervision departments as the main body and city (the city with districts) as the basic framework and elaborates the specific work flow and way of operation around three taches. |
