The Study And Application Of System For Crime Forecast And Formation Analysis Of Quantitative Analysis Method

This thesis attempts to design and develop a system on crime forecast and cause of formation analysis. This system applies to many situations. Dealing with a concrete problem, we can define the nucleus element by the way of DEMATEL and design an automation analysis system on crime cause of formation analysis. Grey forecast model and method are used in crime forecast. We design crime of automation forecast system, base on grey forecast model. During the period of designing we connect quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis, science with human nature. In the same time, we gain the opportunity to apply the system by the computer. The fruit will provide scientific theory for establishing social precautionary measures of crime.The whole thesis can be divided into five chapters. Chapter one is a brief introduction about background, purpose of study, content of study, method of study, and analyze the statue of teen-age crime both of home and abroad. Chapter two is about the DEMATEL model and methods of distinguishing and analyzing elements and the application of DEMATEL method used in cause of formation analysis of crime. Chapter three introduces grey forecast model and method to us, and applies it to establish reasonable grey forecast model of teen-age crime. Chapter four discusses the system design of it, and uses in computer. Chapter five is conclusion.