The Forecast And Analysis About How To Achieve The Strategic Goal Of The National "119 Project" Track And Field Events In 2008

By using data, gray forecasting, mathematical statistics, comparative analysis and logical deduction method, the author summarizes the main features of the national track and field shown in the past world track and field games and the national games; analyses the current status of the national track and field; forecasts the international and national top 3 in each individual event in the 2008 Olympics; and states the development of the "119 Project" track and field events.The research results show that(1) In the 2008 Olympics, the overall standard of the national track and field will be raised to a great extent;(2) However, the development of most events, aiming at gold medals or with great advantage, is unsteady and out of expect.According to the forecast and analysis results, in the 2008 Olympics, to achieve the "119 Project" track and field goals as targeting 2-3 gold medals, 3-5 medals and 5-7 athletes ranking within the top 8. The author deems that:(1) The gold medal breakthrough events are as below successively: men's 110-metre hurdle race, women's 20-kilometre walking race, men's 50-kilometre walking race and women's marathon;(2) The below events undertake tasks to get medals: men's 50-kilometre walking race, women's 10000-metre race, men's 110-metre hurdle race and men's 20-kilometre walking race. (3) The below events are capable to be top 8 in each individual: women's 5000-metre race, women's shot and men's long jump.Therefore, the author brings forward the main proposals as below "greater focus on the 2008 Olympics than the National games; more chances to attend international gamesto improve the practical competition;to set up the feasible practice guide system together with innovation;to organize the national sport teams with sustainable development."...