Hetian Population Growth Change And Its Influence On The Sustainable Development

The sixteenth convention of Chinese Communist reported that solving the problems about the expanding earning, economic imbalance between the city and country and the imbalance among the east, central part and west is the difficulty to the building of wealth society. It sets up higher requirements to the western development. If there is no western modernization, there is no Chinese modernization. The key to realize the modernization is at the west. To Hetian such a poverty region, the first step to get the wealth society is staying away the poverty and developing toward the sustainable development. It should reduce the gap to make the basement to build the wealth society completely.It is remote, and the exist environment is very bad. Most people are the ethnic people. The main economy is the primal agriculture. All of these become the congenital of obturation and dropping behind to make the Hetian typical arid poverty. Hetian plunges into the vicious circle of "PPE"(population, poverty and environment). The population density (10.27) is higher than the standard of arid land (7). Because most people live in the oasis, the oasis population density gets the 169.47, higher than the Chinese average standard (129.4). Under the condition of bad exist environmentand limited exist resources, more population means it is difficult to get rid of poverty. Population number becomes one of most importane factors to deteriorate the arid poverty.This paper uses the theories of obturation and population reproduction. Basing the reality of population growth in Hetian, I choose the index of TFR, NRR, K, e0x, age structure and r. Relying on the fourth and fifth population census, I get TFR is 4.99, which is higher than Chinese average and Xinjiang average about 2.68 and 1.77. That means women' s total birthrate is very high. Under the condition of steady deathrate, bearing becomes a strong pull to the population growth. NRR is 2.36(higher than 1), and it shows that population reproduction is the expanding reproduction. If the population now develops toward the steady reproduction, population will grow at the rate of 28.889%, and then it make the big population number. While in the 2000, the TFR reduces to the 2.2, and the gap with the Chinese and Xinjiang standard reduce, too. At the same time, NRR is 1 and K is0, which show that if Hetian keep the steady reproduction, population will get the quiescence. Because the previously quick growth of population, young population age structure and the inertial effect of the reproduction, population growth is not quiescence; on the contrary, it grows very quickly. So, population reproduction is not steady, and the get to the permanent steady quiescence need a long time. From the age structure, it also shows that during these twenties years, Hetian belong to the intergraded reproduction of high birthrate, low death rate and high growth rate. I also use the 50years data to contrast the natural growth rate among the Hetian, Chinese and Xinjiang average standard. The result is that before the mid- after of 70's, the natural growth rate of Chinese and Xinjiang average standard is higher than Hetian, but Hetian also gets to the 15.76%. While after the mid- after of 70's, the natural growth rate of Chinese and Xinjiang average standard become to reduce and then get to the steady condition because of the family planning. Under the condition of obturation and loose family planning, Hetian population growth keep the former growth elasticity, and the population natural growth rate is higher than Chinese and Xinjiang average standard. Although the natural growth rate is low these years, at the next birth flood tide, it will show higher.From the analyse of in -out index, we know that Hetian population grows quickly and keeps such condition for a long time. This causes a large number of population and makes the population denominator effect obviously. Overfull population affects the regional sustainable development, and causes contradiction between the population number and the land, food and...