Analysis On The Influence Of Population Change On Economic Growth In Xinjiang

As the main body of the society,human being is an unavoidable important factor in the study of economic growth.China's fertility rate has undergone a transformation from high to low,and the main contradiction of population is also changing.From the initial focus on the population growth too fast into the demographic dividend,population aging,gender imbalance and other issues.A regional economic development strategy determines the good or bad of the regional economic development direction,and the reasonable population change will also promote the regional economic development.This paper aims to analyze the impact of population change on economic growth in xinjiang from three aspects: natural population change,migration change and social change.The article consists of five chapters.The first chapter is the research background,the introduction.,significance,research methods and research contents of the paper are indicated,and the possible innovations and deficiencies of the paper are explained in the last section.The second chapter is the theoretical basis and literature review.This paper clarifies the concepts involved in the paper,which are different from the general cognition,and expounds the theoretical basis related to population change and economic growth,and summarizes the research on population and economy at home and abroad,especially in xinjiang.The third chapter analyzes the development of population change and economic growth in xinjiang in recent years.And economic growth is from economic gross and economic level two respects are illuminated.The fourth chapter is the empirical part of population change and economic growth in xinjiang,using granger causality test,co-integration test,gray relational theory and other measurement methods to find out the impact of natural change,migration change,social change in the face of economic growth,and study and analyze its internal relations.Chapter five draws a conclusion on the previous survey and empirical results,and puts forward Suggestions and countermeasures for the coordinated development of population and economy in xinjiang.It is found that the impact of natural population growth rate on household consumption is balanced in the long run,and the elasticity is 0.331.In the short term,the elasticity of the two is 0.618 based on the modified error test.The regression equation shows that the natural growth rate of population and per capita disposable income of urban residents have a greater impact on the consumption level of residents.The rural residents per capita net income impactis weak.Through empirical research on population migration and economic growth,it is found that the granger causes of net population migration include GDP,urbanization degree and fixed asset investment,while the granger causes of average wage of employees and net population migration are each other.In other words,they influence and interact with each other.Fixed asset investment is also the granger cause of population net migration,but the effect is not as obvious as other factors.In addition,the grey correlation analysis of the social change of population and economic growth in the third part shows that the employment personnel engaged in secondary and tertiary industries,the proportion of the population aged15-65 in the total population and the education level of junior college or above have more obvious effects on economic growth,and other factors show different results according to different indicators.Through the above statistical empirical analysis and conclusion,aiming at the different effects of population changes on economic growth in xinjiang,this paper puts forward reasonable Suggestions.