The Influence Of China's Population Structure Changes For The Savings

Since reform and opening up, the economy of our country has achieved rapid development. In 2008, 2009, two consecutive years, China's GDP ranked the third in the world, and the second in 2010 which indicates China has already surpassed Japan as the world's second-largest economy. But at the same time, our country has also appeared in the following two significant problems: one is that when the total savings rate of the world has shown a downward trend continued to decline, China's household savings rate has continued to show an upward trend. Our national savings was GDP 37.5% in 1990, while by 2009 had reached 52% (data from various years of Chinese Statistical Yearbook); Second, since the implementation of China's family planning policy, our population structure changes a lot. The most prominent is the age structure changes, and 65 and older elderly population increases year by year, China will face the problem of the aging population.Taking the Permanent income hypothesis theories(the abbreviation all PIH) of Friedman (1957) as the foundation, introducing population age structure variables, selecting the 1990-2009 panel of 28 inter-provincial data,through constructing an econometric Model, using panel estimation methods and empirical analysis, the paper study the influence of China's population structure changes for the savings. Thus it can be concluded that the population structure change has an important impact on our savings, and there exists significant negative relationship between the savings rate and child dependency ratio, and significant positive correlation between the savings rate and elderly dependency ratio. And latter the significant is stronger than the former. Income growth has a significant positive correlation relationship with the savings rate; the natural growth of population has significantly negative correlation relationship savings rates with savings rates; the natural growth of social basic endowment insurance fund has obvious negative correlation relationship with savings rate.