The Influence Of China's Population Age Structure Change On Economic Growth In The Middle Income Stage

Since the year of reform and opening up,China has made remarkable achievements in economic development and created a miracle of "Chinese-style economic growth" characterized by high growth rates.This is largely due to the development of abundant labor resources.The "demographic dividend" brought about by the change in the age structure of the population has made a tremendous contribution to the rapid economic growth in China.At the beginning of the 21 st century,with the completion of the modern demographic transition in China,the age structure of the population began to transition from young to old age,and the “structural” dividend of the population is fading.At the same time,the economic growth situation corresponding to the age transition of the population has also begun to change.In 2010,China's economic growth rate began to slow down and entered the “new normal economy” stage.In this context,the age structure of the population will have a far-reaching impact on economic growth.In addition,China is in the middle-income stage,the key stage in the transformation and upgrading of economic structure,how to coordinate the complex relationship between the age structure of the population and the economic transition,and it will not take the backward path of some Latin American countries and will successfully stride over the middle-income stage."Entering the ranks of high-income countries is crucial to our country's goal of achieving "two hundred years."This article will examine the impact of population age structure change on economic growth from the perspective of changes in the age structure of the labor force and changes in the human capital,hoping to discover how China's age structure of the labor force and the changes in human capital structure in the process of population aging affect macroeconomic growth.And the direction of action.First of all,from the perspective of the transformation of China's population age structure and the basic conditions of economic growth,and then proceeding from the realistic background of China's entering the middle-income stage,it tries to systematically review the age structure of the population and economic growth,and on this basis The empirical analysis of the influence of population age structure on economic growth.Secondly,using China's cross-section data and EVIEWS software to study the correlation between the age structure change and economic growth in China's population.On this basis,we conclude that China's middleincome stage to avoid falling into the "middle-income trap" related thinking and policy recommendations.Based on this research,this paper believes that China is in the midincome stage,does not fall into the category,and must avoid falling into the "middle income trap".It needs to solve many practical problems and actively respond to the challenges brought about by various aspects;Although the economic growth effect brought about by the “demographic dividend” is gradually dissipating,in the middleincome stage,China's labor force is still relatively abundant,and economic growth can still enjoy the tail effect of the “demographic dividend”,that is,the labor force's economic growth.The promotion effect is still obvious,but the motivation will weaken with the further shrinkage of the working-age population in China;With the effective implementation of China's comprehensive two-child policy,it will supplement the gap in the supply of labor resources and further increase the human capital stock,which will affect the direction of China's economic restructuring and upgrading in the future.