Study On National Defense Critical Technology Selecting Method Based On Technology Foresight

As an important part of national defense science and technology, national defense critical technology (NDCT) plays a key role in remaining qualitative superiority of weapon and equipment, promoting economic development, ensuring national security. Nowadays, main states in the world work out successively their strategies of national defense science and technology development to speed up the growth of NDCT, but critical technology selection (CTS) is the base of developing NDCT. At present, study on basic theories and methods of national defense critical technology selection (NDCTS) in our country is very unsystematic and depth is not enough. There is not a theoretical monograph discussed NDCTS comprehensively and systematically. The paper tries to "graft" theories of CTS based on technology foresight (TF) to NDCTS, to build preliminarily theoretical systems and research methods of NDCTS.First, on the basis of studying systematically technology foresight and NDCTS theories, the paper expounds scientifically differentiation and connection between TF and CTS.Second, from the view of TF, the paper studies systematically goals and principles of NDCTS, determines criterions of NDCTS, establishes evaluating specifications systems and computing methods of NDCTS, builds preliminarily theoretical systems of NDCTSThird, combined between qualitative and quantitative study, the paper explores deeply Delphi and AHP methods of NDCTS and their practical applications in NDCTS..Fourth, according to military demands, the paper selects 25 technologies as objects of study, conducts importance evaluation to these technologies adopting Delphi and AHP methods and selects NDCT needed preferential development.Finally, by means of analysing the internal and external environments that our country's NDCTS faced with, the paper studies deeply goals, principles and emphases, raises strategic Countermeasures of our country's NDCTS.