Empirical Research Of Equilibrium Of Foreign Exchange Reserve Of Our Country

Foreign reserve of the nation has steadily increased in recent years, reaching at 609.932 billion$ in the end of 2004. It is well known that foreign reserve has many functions, such as stabilizing the exchange rate of RMB, and supporting the import of scarce materials and equipments. As one of the national strategy, it is very important for importing of petroleum. On the other hand, besides the holding cost, large amount of foreign reserves will weaken the effect of monetary policy through changing distribution channel of RMB, which pools the stress of inflation.After discussing right and bad function of foreign exchange reserve, the thesis describes macroeconomic influence factors and microeconomic influence moderation quantity factors of foreign exchange reserve, then define concept of macro foreign exchange reserve and micro foreign exchange reserve. In empirical research, the thesis solves false regression and omits of the variable different vector auto regression.The cointegrated model and error correction model are built up in the thesis, with variance decomposition and impulse response. The factors of influencing moderation quantity foreign exchange reserve are analyzed. It's some experienced result are concluded in the thesis. Namely, FDI, M2 and export positively influence foreign exchange reserve, FDI has more influence than an export, and the real effective exchange rate and import have inversely, and the effect of import is much more than the real effective. The intercept of the cointegration equation means the needs foreign exchange reserve for the national economy developing. In the result and policy analyse, the paper provides pieces of advise for influence factors of moderation foreign exchange reserve. I hope results of the thesis may have reference value in foreign exchange reform for policy maker.