Application On Markov Chains Forecast Method In Capital Operation And Correlative Financial Managing Decision

Many methods can be used for forecasting of economy. Most of them require a lot of information of pastime. The way of Markov chains forecasting is based on the studying of the starting vector and the transferring probability. By this way, we can confirm the changing trend so that we can forecast the future of enterprise. Comparing with the other methods of economic forecasting, Markov chains forecasting need the information of the newly and current but not the continuous history information and database.The primary principle of Markov chains forecasting is setting up the model that is used for forecasting the state of some time in the future by using the starting vector and the transferring probability. The paper selects two years economic operations of the same enterprise as the research objective.This paper is composed with six parts:In the first part we introduce the present situation of Markov chains theory and the methods of studying for fiscal tables.In the second part we introduce the definition of the Markov chains and the basal types of Markov chains models. We also introduce the steps of making model.In the third part we introduce the basal suppose of the Markov chains forecasting, including the states partition and the confirmation of the transferring matrix.In the forth part we select selects two years economic operations of the same enterprise as the research objective. Using the Markov chains forecasting we gain the transferring matrix, so that we conclude the fiscal table in the future.In the fifth part we evaluate the fiscal table that is forecasted by Markov chains forecasting in order to judge of the rationality of the enterprise operations.The last part is the conclusion and advices. We can use the Markov chains to forecast the fiscal situation, and we can gain the reliable result.