Study On The Risk Analysis Of Land Investment

There is no going back to the era of using land with no payment and no time limit. Instead, land has become a kind of commodity regulated by free market. Furthermore, Land is irreplaceable in both nature and human society, and our Chinese are famous for the strong feelings with land. Therefore, the act of investing in land is more particular than any other forms of investment, which then leads to the particularity and inevitability of risk in land investment. Under the circumstances, it is necessary to study on risk analysis of land investment and to find proper strategies to lower the risk of a certain land project.Considering the variety of land investment, this dissertation first lists the probable risks of each kind respectively and concludes that all these risks can be summed up into five main risks: physical risk, technological risk, social risk, running risk, political risk. After getting marked by experts, the weigh of each kind of risk can be figured out in the application of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). And then, in order to help investors make a good decision on risk, the paper points out the basic ideas of how to use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to determine the extent of risk in land projects. Moreover, neither nature nor society is lack of mutation phenomenon, and land has both natural and social characteristics. So this dissertation questions the traditional ways of risk analysis, which are based on the continuous distribution of risk. In fact, risk accidents probably come into being when risk element reaches a limited extent abruptly. Then, from the practical point of view, several strategies of lowering risk are proposed, such as more information and insurance etc. Finally, the paper discusses the procedure and contents of risk ex-post evaluation in land investment, which provides valuable data and experiences for future project's risk analysis.