Research On Power Plants Risk In The Electricity Market

The generating sets will generate electricity for the net by price-competition in pace with the deepening of power industry reform in China. Because there are lots of uncertain factors in the power market, power enterprises face many risks during the process of builing, running and development. The author of this thesis recognizes all kinds of risks on power enterprise, and classifies them by inside and outside, and the inside risks are classified further into common risks and special risks. Then the author makes an exhaustive study on two important risks, price compitition risk and maintenance risk. To study price-competition risk, the author establishs quoting forecast mathematical model by using statistics technique, and introduces the algorithm of price-competition risk in both deterministic and stochastic condition. Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique(GERT) is the main method used to study the maintainance risk in this thesis. It concludes that the uncertainty of maintainance period and cost, and the possibility of redoing some procedure are the main reasons for the risk, so controling effectively the period and cost, and improving the quatity of workers are the keys to reducing the risk lose, two examples in chapter 5 conform this conclusion also. Zhang Juan (Technical Economics and management)Directed by prof. Tan Zhongfu...