The Research On Power Market Risk And Corresponding Strategy

The mode of power generation trade and consumption has changed radically along with the implementation of separating power plants from power networks and generation bidding in electric power market. The power plant and power networks company have turned into self-governed economic entity, which makes uncertain factors of power system more and more for seeking furthest economic profit and leads operation conditions and disturbance state more complex and unpredictable then before. Traditionally the system operation reliability is higher than economic reliability and now the relation has been reversed. All the participant wish to grasp the variation information of the interest in various risk environment, in order to adopt necessary preventive measures and evadable measures on time and thus avoid or reduce economic loss. It is necessary to have a systemic study for our country's risk problem in power system reform and put forward some evading measures.In this paper, the research on stability problem and market risk of generation side power market is illustrated on the base of considering power market economic stability and power system physical stability generally, which study object is the power market of provincial level. Several generation bidding trade mode recommended are analyzed and compared, which are considered owning advantage and disadvantage and suit various environment. The paper analyzes the factors affecting bidding strategy and uses anticipant income-risk utility function to evaluate market strategy of dealing participant, and introduces option contract applying to interruptible power contracts. Through the analysis of power shortage situation, this paper shows risk management program how to apply to power market and puts forward some measures evading power shortage from generation side and demand side synchronously. At last the paper study some characteristic of power market after introducing competition deeply and analyzes several risk problems affecting market stability and system stability, including price risk, market power risk regulation risk system layout problem system stability problem environment protection risk and so on. In addition, the paper discusses some problem existing on power system of Hunan province simply.