| Objective:To analyze the epidemiological and pathogenic characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD)in Jilin Province,to establish a time-series analysis model of HFMD and assess its predictive effect,and to examine the association between HFMD morbidity and meteorological factors,so as to provide rationalization proposal for the scientific,effective prevention and control of HFMD in Jilin Province in the future.Methods:Excel 2010 was used to establish the database of hand-foot-mouth disease in Jilin province,and the epidemic situation data of HFMD from 2008 to 2016 in Jilin province was analyzed with the method of descriptive epidemiology.IBM_SPSS 21.0 was used to construct the time series prediction model for HFMD monthly cases from 2008 to May,2017,and prediction and evaluation was made with the HFMD cases from June to August in 2017.IBM_SPSS 21.0 was used to conduct Spearman correlation analysis,to discuss the relationship between HFMD cases from 2014 to 2016 in Changchun and the average pressure(hpa),the average temperature(?),the average relative humidity(%),precipitation(mm),the average wind speed(m/s),as well as the relationship between various meteorological factors and the degree of the correlation.Results:1.A total of 146538 cases of hand-foot-mouth disease were reported in Jilin Province during 2008~2016,with an annual incidence rate of 59.34/100000,there was a significant difference in different years(X2=30469.57,P<0.001).The incidence of severe illness(severe number / case)was higher in 2010,2011 and 2014 than other years,the difference of severe illness incidence between different years was statistically significant(X2=477.21,P<0.001),deaths are reported on hardly every year expect 2013,2015 and 2016.2.Most HFMD cases were children nuder 5 years old,accounting for 79.05% of the total,the sex ratio of male: female is 1.46:1.Most cases were scattered children,accounting for 58.68% of the number of total cases,the proportion of kindergarten's children,which was the second highest,was 34.66%,the proportion of student was 6.09%.3.From 2008 to 2016,the strength of epidemic strength increased every other year.There are case reports in each month of the years,and the trends are basically the same in each year.The number of cases began to rise in April,the high incidence season was 6~8 months,and the epidemic declined after October,the peak incidence usually appeared in July,except for 2016,in which year the peak incidence was in August.4.There are case reports in all the nine provinces in Jilin Province.The top three regions of the annual average incidence rate were Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture(92.53/10 million,2020 cases),Tonghua(89.57/10 million,2246 cases)and Siping City(70.19/10 million,2500 cases).5.The hand-foot-mouth disease cases diagnosed by laboratory in Province was mainly positive EV71,accounting for 35.04%,but the major epidemic types are not the same throughout the years,in 2008~2010 years and 2014 there were mainly positive EV71,positive Cox A16 in 2012,and other positive EV in 2013,2015 and 2016.6.A total of 1186 severe HFMD cases were reported in Jilin Province from 2008 to 2016,the proportion of male and female was 1.73:1.Scattered children accounted for 79.43%,kindergarten's children accounted for 18.80%,students accounted for 1.77%.The 1~3-year-old group reported a higher number of severe cases.Pathogenic detection showed that positive EV71 accounted for 52.02%,positive Cox A16 accounted for 6.16%,and other positive EV accounted for 8.60%,negative virus accounted for 33.22%.In 2008~2016 years,35 cases of HFMD deaths were reported in Jilin Province,and there were 34 severe cases among them.There were 19 males and 16 females in the death cases,all less than 5 years old,and the number of cases of 2~3 years old was the highest,The etiology test showed that positive EV71 was the major pathogen.7.Model was established by HFMD data in Jilin Province from 2008 to May,2017,then ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 was fitted though screening and texting,and to predict the actual data series of HFMD in Jilin Province from June to August in 2017.Compared the predicted value and the actual value,the results show that the actual values are within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted value,and the average relative error is 23.78%,the predictive ability of our model was good.8.The weekly cases of HFMD in Changchun was positively correlated with the average temperature,showed moderate and weak negative correlation with mean barometric pressure and mean wind speed,weakly and moderately correlation with relative humidity and precipitation.There were also some correlations among the meteorological factors in Changchun,mean pressure showed high and moderate negative correlations with average temperature and average precipitation,there was a moderate positive correlation between average temperature and average precipitation,also a moderate positive correlation between the average relative humidity and the average precipitation,and a moderate negative correlation between mean relative humidity and mean wind speed.Conclusion:1.In Jilin Province,hand-foot-mouth disease showed an obvious seasonal distribution from 2008 to 2016,the high-occurrence season was in the period of June to August;the high incidence areas were Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture,Tonghua City and Siping City;scattered children were the major patients,most cases were children under 5 years old,males were more than females;laboratory diagnostic showed that the majority of cases were positive EV71;the distribution characteristics of severe and death cases were in line with the overall situation.2.The ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,1)12 Model,fitted though the epidemic data of hand-foot-mouth disease in Jilin Province from 2008 to May 2017,was satisfactory for the prediction of the cases from June to August in 2017.3.There was a correlation between weekly HFMD cases from 2014 to 2016 in Changchun and meteorological factors,such as average pressure(hpa),the average temperature(?),the average relative humidity(%),precipitation(mm),the average wind speed(m/s). |
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