| Objective:To explore a new method of influenza surveillance in community.Methods:Influenza surveillance,including influenza like illness(ILI),pharmacy on sale,pathogen based on rapid test and disease burden,was carried out on Hangu street,Datian town,Hangu district between Oct,2009 to Feb,2011. Visting rate of rural residents was used to adjust the incidence rate of ILI and influenza.Cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) was used to give alert signal by using EARS software. Space-time scan statistics was used to identify clusters of village by using SaTScan software. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the ILI.Results:The visiting rate of ILI case on community was 20.9%. From Oct,2009 to Feb,2011,700 ILI cases were found,ILI% was 1.19%.The incidence of ILI and influenza was 2397.6 and 94.64 per 100,000. The influenza season from Oct,2009 to March.2010,IIL of community surveillance was most related(lag=0) to ILI of national sentinel surveillance (Spearman rank r=0.675,P=0.000).ILI was most related to person time of sale of influenza pharmacy ahead one week(Spearman rank r=0.620,P=0.000). The popular viruses were late 3 or 4 weeks when compared with national sentinel surveillance. ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)7 Model could be as a good model for predicting influenza-like illness. Ten cluster areas were founded by CUSUM and space-time permutation analysis.Two outbreaks were confirmed.The average fees for inpatient wasï¿¥1692.86 and outpatient wasï¿¥263.43.Conclusion:The new surveillance mode of influenza in community can complement the sentinel surveillance based on over second-class hospitals,give early alert and prediction,and provide theoretical for public health measures. |
