A Study On The Applicability Of Space-time Scan Statistic In Early Warning Of Infectious Disease

Objective: The ability to detect infectious disease outbreaks early is important in order to minimize mobility and mortality through timely implementation of disease prevention and control measures. However, most analytical methods in use for early detection are purely temporal and have their defects in nature. In this paper, space-time scan statistic, which accounts for both temporal and spatial components of data, was used to detect infectious disease outbreaks early.Method: The models based on the space-time scan statistic were tested by mimicking daily prospective analyses of measles data in 2005. For fully illustration of the method, the analyses of this paper were implemented at provincial level, county level, villages and towns level separately. In addition, the three dimension visualizations of results were realized in Google Earth.Result: The space-time scan statistic could timely detect the outbreaks that start locally. And the three dimension visualization could express the results more directly and vividly and seemed to be more convenient for decision maker.Conclusion: The early warning system based on space-time scan statistic and geographical information system could work efficiently.