The Survey Of Relationship Among Plague Prevailing And Flood And Drought In Yunnan Province

Objective:(1) Describe the data characteristic of the relationship of flood, drought and plague survey index in 1996-2007 Yunnan Province; (2) Analysize the change rule of plague survey index (rat density and the change rule of fleas index) in 1996-2007 Yunnan Province; (3) Explore the influence of flood and drought to plague; the plague.Data and methods:(1) In-depth Yunnan province and the library acquisition of emergency office in Yunnan province the 1996 in Yunnan province in 2007 of the theses mitigation yearbook flood drought disaster material, main index is disasters, time of occurrence frequency; (2) Yunnan institute of deep 1996 endemic to collect the plague monitoring data in 2007, mainly adopts index for rodents density and flea index; (3)Use a database of EpiData 3.1, and statistical analysis, SPSS17.0 with ARCGIS graphic analysis of Yunnan flood and drought disasters, indexes and the plague monitoring index rat density, the distribution characteristics of fleas index and mutual relations were retrospectively analyzed. (4) Discusses the climatic zone, the dry Hong disaster with the Logistic regression model whether to have as well as the disaster by stages with the bubonic plague popular relations.Results:(1) On the whole, the frequency of drought and flood presented wave ascend. The appearance of disasters has obvious seasonal character-istic. Generally speaking, drought frequently occur in spring, while flood always take place in the summer. In terms of the regional distribution in Yunnan province, the southern drought is less than north. Doing Normality test between drought and flood and the plague monitoring index data present P<0.05, so we could consider that three sets of data are skewness distribution. Annual rodents density was descend year by year, while the main trend of annual flea index presented slow rise except that 2000 has increased significantly. The rodents density per month is almost not change, but every year has obvious increase in August on the fleas index. (2) Test with rank sum to see whether or not there are prevalent between rodents density and the flea index with the prevalent of plague. It turned out that the flea index has statistical significance. When the flea index is high, the possibility of plague is great, meanwhile rodents density has not statistical significance. (3) Different stages of drought and flood bring that rodents density and the flea index distribution is different:Except that between flood period and drought early period have statistical significance, others have not statistical significance. So it is considered that rodents density of flood period higher than drought period, others does not change significantly. The flea index of flood period has obvious change relative to the other periods. Except that flood period with differences other groups was statistical significance, every other two groups has not statistical significance. It turned out that flea index of flood period higher than the other three period, but every other two groups generally is same. (4) To see with Correlation analysis whether or not different periods of drought and flood and plague have correlation? The result is that flood disaster and plague have positive correlation, and drought isn't related to plague. (5) Yunnan Province differs from north to south which present sharp increase in the risk of plague.Conclusion:In short, the incidence of drought and flood shows an ascendant trend in 1996-2007 Yunnan province. The disaster happens seasonally, and drought always happens in spring, while flood in summer. From the region, the incidence of north is more than north. The data of flood, drought and index of plague is impartial. The density of mouse is declining gradually, and the index of flea is boosting. The index of flea rises in summer, the density of mouse keeps balance. The time of flood and drought is keep up with the rate of mouse and flea. Firstly, the density of mouse rises in the period of flood. Secondly, the index of flea rises higher than in other time. The epidemiologic peak of plague stays in the period of flood, secondly, in later period. The influence of flood and drought on plague is that plague always happens in the period of flood (June to August), secondly, it happens in the later period of flood(September to October). The risk of prevail of plague in period of flood is three times more than in period and earlier period of drought. The risk of prevail of plague in later period of flood is two times more than in period and earlier period of drought. The incidence of plague in period and earlier period of drought do not have too many differences.