Applied Research In The Forecast Of Plague Epizootic Of Citellus Dauricus

ObjectiveIn order to provide the scientific data for preventing strategies, the prevalence characters of plague, we analysis the factors that influenced the prevalence of epizootic plague of Citellus Dauricus, and a predicating model for forecasting of plague of Citellus Dauricus have been studied.Methods1. Correlation analysis. We collected the data of the plague survey and the climate data of 1957~2004 from the Northwest Prairie in Jilin Province, and analyzed with software package of SPSS10.0 for Windows, then choosed the correlate factors to established the forecasting model of the plague.2. Forecasting model of neural network. The forecasting model for plague of Citellus Dauricus has been established by using the Neural Network Toolbox of Matlab7 software package. In the studies of forecasting model, the data of the Citellus Dauricus density,body flea index,body ticks index,track flea index,average monthly air temperature,average monthly air pressure,average monthly relative humidity,average monthly rainfall,the Citellus Dauricus density after rodent control and the capture ratio of rat in miniature from 1957 to 2004 from the Northwest Prairie in Jilin Province. The established forecasting model also has been tested and verified by fact data of plague.Results1. the analysis result of correlation. the Citellus Dauricus density,body flea index,body Ticks index,track flea index,average monthly air temperature,average monthly relative humidity,average monthly rainfall,the Citellus Dauricus density after rodent control and the capture ratio of rat in miniature was positive correlation to the prevalence of epizootic plague of Citellus Dauricus, and the average monthly air pressure was negative correlation to the prevalence of epizootic plague of Citellus Dauricus.2. Forecasting model of neural network. After training the neural network for 1000...