Dynamics And Mathematical Analysis Of Epidemic Hemorrhagic Fever

The paper makes a study of the dynamics of epidemic hemorrhagic fever in Jiangsu province from 1963 to 2001. The results show that the incidence rate of epoch is the eighth decade , there were higher incidence rate in Xuzhou city , Lian Yungang city ,Wuxi city and Changzhou city Most patients occurred during November to January, 56.2 percent of the number of all the incidence .The incidence rate of people aged from 30 to 40 was highest .The incidence rate of male was 2.697 times as rate of female. Incidence rate of peasants was the highest in all occupations, followed by workers.The relationship between EHF and meteorological factors in Gan Yu area from 1990 to 2001 is analyzed using the step regression .The result shows that the occurrence of the EHF is negatively correlated to the minimal temperature, positive correlation with sunlight and humidity. Based on the correlation analysis, the stepwise regression model and the auto regression model are established, the state-space model is set up by the time series methods, which fits better and provides some references for preventing and treating the disease.The paper establishes principal component model. Selecting three principal component which total contribution rate is 89.377 percent summary the EHF incidence. It describes that the incidence rate was correlate with mouse density, the minimal temperature and mobility of population.