| The seventh National People's Congress bring forward, to build a well-off society in an all-round way , and making great efforts to promote strategic adjustment of structure in agriculture and rural economics, work relating agriculture, rural areas and farmers remains top priority. Especially in China's accession to the WTO and national implementation of the western development strategy, the market-oriented agriculture, the process of internationalization for Aksu oasis agricultural production has brought greater opportunities and challenges.In this paper, historical data analysis, statistical analysis, mathematical model analysis, system analysis of Aksu oasis 1978-2007 cropping systems in the evolution of the rule, the evolution of the driving factors, and Aksu oasis for food security assessment and prediction, in-depth study of Aksu oasis cultivation system to evolve countermeasures, Aksu oasis for a reasonable system of sustainable development provided the basis for planting. The results show that:(1) Since 1978, Aksu oasis gradually from a grain crop structure as the key to the development of the dual structure, and until now, the pluralistic structure, such as the new pattern of development; food crops sown area continued decreased, but yield levels, making the total output of food crops continued to increase; economic upward trend in crop acreage, especially the cotton growing area, yield stability; fruit rapid increase in acreage, production increased, and the establishment of the National fruit planting base; multiple crop index has been a growing trend in 1978 from 71% to 117% in 2007,Diversification of cropping patterns to the trend.(2) The main factor driving the evolution of government policy guidance, social and market demand, high-level applications, as well as various types of material input level, are driving the evolution of Aksu oasis Structure. County level in areas directly affect the level of the overall agricultural inputs, Aksu area counties (cities) and different levels of agricultural inputs, manifested in: Kuqa County, Xinhe[Toksu] County, the city of Aksu in the level of high, high level of agricultural modernization, and large correlation coefficient of crop output; Wushi County, Beit County, Saya County, Keping County into a low level, modern low level of agricultural output and a small correlation coefficient, But its potential for development of agricultural material input, and should be the focus of investment in Aksu Prefecture, Aksu region as a whole in order to enhance the level of agricultural modernization.(3) Established a mathematical model and the current food security Aksu oasis traits were analyzed, before 1986, big pressure on arable land, and a great impact on food security, and after 1986, the pressure on cultivated land reduced, Food security and food production levels to ensure. The future by the year 2015, in order to guarantee food security, must ensure that food in the area of arable land to maintain around 180 thousand hm2, and ensure food production reached 982,600 ton.(4) To optimize the cultivation system in principle the development of cropping systems Aksu oasis response: In the state intervention and market regulation, the advantage of regional resources, the rational distribution of crops, the expansion of multiple crop index, the implementation of the changes in cropping patterns, to develop three-dimensional multi-cropping, Led to the farming development with technology development, to achieve sustainable development. |
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