Cost-benefit Analysis Of Northward Winter Wheat As Adaptation Option To Climate Change In Ningxia

Climate change has a significant impact on agriculture in Ningxia. As a mature technologies, the northward winter wheat can make use of the favorable conditions, avoid disadvantage ones. Expanding the area under winter wheat cultivation has an important impact on cropping systems and crop layout of Ningxia. However,the research of the economic benefit and principle of adaptation to climate change still lack. This study analysed the cost-benefit of northward winter wheat as adaptation option to climate change based on the investigations both in the field and farmer household. The characteristics of the climate change during the growing period of winter wheat is analysed. The climate change context and the yield trends of wheat during 2022-2050 under climate change scenrios are estimated. It is attempt to reveal the principles of northward winter wheat as an adaptation measure based on all analysis above. The adaptation strategies and countermeasures for the further development and enhancement of the adaptation effects of the northward winter wheat are recommended.The main conclusions are as follows:1. The economic benefits of wheat in Wuzhong, Yongning and Helan in 2007 and 2008 are analysed. The results show that the multiple cropping of winter wheat and vegetable has the best economical benefit for money, but with the maximum cost at same time. The winter wheat can not totally substitute the spring wheat even with the best economical benefit.2. According to the observed temperature data of 1961-2004 at the eleven stations in North Ningxia, the conditions of northward winter wheat had already matured. The mean temperature both in winter and in spring is ascending gradually. The mean temperature in winter rises with a more significant trend after 1978. The gradual rise of average minimum temperature both in winter and January provided prerequisite for the safe overwintering of the winter wheat in the Norht of Ningxia. . The late grain filling period of spring wheat is between the third ten days of June and the first ten days of July, which had a large number of ten days with its temperature above 24 degree. It makes the progress of grain filling become more slowly, and then the product and quality of wheat will fall.3. The temperature trends during growing period of wheat in 2022 to 2050 under A2 and B2 scenrios are analysed. The winter mean temperature gradually increased, and the trend would be more significant after 2035. The mean temperature in spring rise fluctuatedly, but it would fall after 2043-2045. The results of moving t-test are in accordance with above ones. The temperature abupt to minus value under B2 scenios is significant than that under A2. The number of days of the average maximum temperature above 32℃with 3 days successily are compared. The high-temperature under B2 scenrio would have a higher frequency than under A2.4. The trend of wheat yields during 2022-2050 by using CERES-Wheat mode are simulated. Both the yield of winter and spring wheat would decrease under A2 and B2 scenrios, while the yields of winter wheat increase slightly in 2040s under B2 scenrio, which beyond A2 possibly related to the temperature trend of spring and winter.5. The interdecadal trend of economic benefit of three planting patten during 2021-2050 are analysed. The NPVs of the multiple cropping of winter wheat and vegetable are the highest among all of the cropping patterns.6. The adaptation strategies and countermeasures for the further development and enhancement of the adaptation effects of the northward winter wheat are recommended. It is emphased that improving the quality is as one of the most important targets im adjusting the breeding targets of the winter wheat. The adjustments of the irrigation systems, cropping systems and breeding targets of the spring wheat are all the relavant adaptative options in Ningxia.