Study On Forest Fire Spreading Model And Simulation Based On GIS

Fire spreading has the feather of time and space. With the rapid development of geography information system and the increasingly growth knowledge of fire, the study on simulation of fire behavior changes to the quantificational simulation, so it plays a more and more important role in fire prevention. The forecast accuracy of fire behavior has further to enhance for the complex burning principium, the changeable meteorology, the complex terrain and the diverse vegetation.This article analyses the forest fire situation of ZheJiang province, it obtains the rule and characteristic of fire; it has established the forest fire spreading experience model through to analyze scene of fire, weather data and sample data. Moreover, it has verified this model, and realizes the dynamic spreading simulation. The main conclusions of this article are as follows:(1) Using the factor analytic method, it obtains variables which have big influence on forest fire, namely the forest factors, wind, the temperature and humidity, the slope, total load capacity.(2) Using the non-linear regression analysis method, it puts DBH in the model as an influence factor, establishes the forest fire spreading experience model. After the proof-test, this model is fit for the Masson pine. Fire proliferation shape and front of flame tally with the actual spreading process. The overlap part of actual fire scene and simulation fire area is more than 80%. Simulation fire scene and flame front direction are also similar to actual fire. The conclusion proved that, this research technique is feasible.3) This article programs with VB, achieves the forest fire spreading, and realizes superimposition function of simulated the scene of fire and the original scene of fire.The method choosing independent variable of the model by factor analytic method before fire modeling, were appeared in the papers infrequently in our country. In addition, it is a innovation here that add the breast-height diameter into model as a factor.In the forest fire management, it is difficult to forecast precisely fire spreading with simple mathematical model, which approximately describes the complex forest fire spreading process. In this article, the model can directly estimate to the forest fire behavior through to meteorological factors and the combustible substance which easy to obtain. After the simulation confirmation, the model is feasible. Moreover, the model which this article establishes is including DBH, slope, wind, smallest relative humidity. DBH and slope in certain the local and time is relatively stable, can obtain through compartment data; the wind speed, wind direction and the minimum relative humidity has randomicity, but which can be forecast accurately by the modern science and technology, thus the model has practical significance.