| Drought has been become the most widely influence surface, lasted for a long time, theeconomic loss caused by one of the worst natural disasters, the farming and animal husbandryproduction, social economy and people’s life all can cause serious influence of the tarim riverbasin, belong to the arid and semi-arid area, the annual precipitation, and less time and spacedistribution is not uniform, and the shortage of water resources phenomenon is serious, thedrought is the valley the main natural disasters. Has the serious influence and restrict the valleysocial and economic sustainable development. Evaluation of the tarim basin drought, droughtspace and time distribution, drought, rules and forecast for the drought relief work to providerelevant information and technical support, in order to improve drought fighting work initiativeand scientific decision-making, to deal with the water shortage problem is very necessary.According to the tarim river basin in xinjiang drought fighting work needs, in order to studythe basic features of the tarim basin drought, drought, the causes of drought disaster in the timeand space distribution rule and drought prediction as main contents:(1) summarizes the basic features of the tarim basin drought and drought causes: widespreaddrought, drought, frequent severe, with s extension arid cycle is shortened, and increase thedrought, drought disaster is continuity, regional differences are significant, influence scope, thetype of a hazard factor, subsquently complex environment. Abnormal atmospheric circulation is amajor drought conditions, climate warming affect environmental elements, so that the droughtperiod shorten, social factors and change the above process, increased the development of thedrought.(2) the investigation and analysis of the tarim basin in5(state)42counties (cities)1950-2010for drought caused by agriculture, animal husbandry and industrial aspects of the damage degreeand the precipitation data, using statistical calculation, frequency analysis, according to thedrought hierarchy standard, determine the tarim basin four levels of drought grade (severe drought, severe drought, moderate drought, mild drought) occurred frequency and distribution division.According to the dry season, the classification of the tarim basin determine the four easy dryseason (spring drought, XiaHan, spring and summer drought, the spring and autumn period andthe drought) drought areas of distribution, and even the season the drought occurrence frequency,and ultimately determine the valley of drought disaster in time and space distributioncharacteristics. Through the GIS software Mapinfo to easy dry season and drought grade profilefor division.(3) according to the1980-2010the tarim basin of drought disaster time and disaster statisticsdata, using the grey catastrophe theory, a catastrophic drought gray prediction GM (1,1) model,the tarim basin in the future5years drought were analyzed forecast, Drought prediction resultsshow that2007,2009and2009years for droughts. Through the actual investigation, the tarimriver basin since2006consecutive major drought, drought in2007,2009,2009measured values(drought inundated area) were24.31×104hm~2,27.55×104hm~2,26.58×104hm~2, and modelprediction was consistent, and the results confirmed that the drought forecasting model is effective.Shows that the gray theories can be as a method for prediction of drought, provide guidance fordisaster prevention and mitigation management.Based on the basic characteristics of the tarim basin drought, drought, the causes ofdrought disaster in the time and space distribution rule and drought prediction research, effectivelycontrol the occurrence of the tarim basin of drought, for effective planning and allocation of waterresources, scientific and reasonable engineering measures, implementation of human resourcesscheduling, drought disaster will be reduced to the lowest level lay the foundation. At the sametime for the next step drought warning forecast, drought monitoring and warning system, theestablishment of the drought relief command scheduling system to provide relevant informationand technical support. |
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