Research On The Diffusion And Reversal Adoption Of Transgenic Anti-insect Cotton Varieties In Zhoukou City, Henan Province

Since the transgenic modified anti-insect cotton has been commercialy planted in china, it has obtained rapid diffusion in ten years. But along with the change of economical, social and the natural environment, its difussion entered a volatile time; some of the cotton growers give up the anti-insect cotton varieties and reuse the non-anti-insect cotton varieties. This article defines this kind of behavior change as the "reversal adoption behavior". Therefore, a research on changes of the farmers' adoption behavior on anti-insect cotton and the factors influencing them has vital significance to promote further the application of transgenic anti-insect cotton.Based on the data of 273 households planting cotton in Zhoukou, this study analyzed the difussion speed at each proliferation stage and the stage at present, through establishing the proliferation model of anti-insect cotton in Zhoukou; and to analyze the phenomenon that the diffusion speed slow down and planting area fluctuated in anti- insect cotton in sample area during this years, this study pay more attention on analyzing the reason of the "reversal adoption behavior". First, the farmers' valuation and adoption on anti-insect cotton are described; then the likely influencing factors on farmers' reversal adoption are analyzed descriptively; at last, a binary Logistic model is found to estimate the influence of thefactors on farmers'reversal adoption behavior. The major coclusions are as followed.(1) The diffusion speed of the anti-insect cotton in the Zhoukou city reached its maximum in 2002, and then entered the stage of slowing down; proportion of anti-insect cotton area to the cotton area in the whole city maximized in 2004, it dropped in the two years followed, and is assumed to fluctuate. In 2003, the "reversal adoption behavior" appeared, and to 2006, 39.3% of the investigated farmers adopt the "reversal adoption behavior".(2) The cognition of investigated farmer on anti-insect cotton has focused on "anti-Heliothisavmigera hubner", as its most remarkable characteristic. They know little about its anti-insect mechanism and the physiological difference with the non-anti- insect cotton varieties. Therefore, traditional cultivate technology of the non- anti- insect cotton is used to planting anti-insect cotton, without technical guidance and propper training. 30.2% of investigated households are not satisfied with the effect of anti-insect cotton, the main reasons are: the unitary and the drop tendency of its resistance to insects, lower output compared to traditional varieties and inferior textile fiber quality; 33.6% of investigated peasant households feel satisfied with the anti- insect cotton, because of the merits of anti-Heliothis avmigera hubner and saving pesticide and labor. (3) The estimation result of reversal adoption model shows that: farmers' satisfaction with anti-insect cotton, output superiority, pesticide cost reduction, and recommendation of relatives and neighbors are obvious nagetively correlated with the households' reversal adoption on anti-insect cotton. The higher price of anti-insect cotton seed increased the cost of adopting the new technology, and hence helped to reverse the adoption behavior. The habit of reserving seed for planting also helped the peasant household's adoption behavior to reverse. The policy, human and physical resource and technical support from the government also affect the peasant household's reversal adoption on anti-insect cotton remarkably.On the conclusions above, this article put forward some corresponding political proposals to strengthen and stable the use of anti-insect cotton in china, to utilize well the benefit which the biological technology brought into agriculture, and to promote the development of cotton industry.