Pest Risk Analysis On Serious Non-indigenous Pests To Beijing Area

According to the specific condition of Beijing area, Hyphantria cunea (Drury), Dendroctonus valens Le Conte. Bursaphelenchus xylophilus(Steiner&Buhrer)Nickle and Apriona swainsoni (Hope) were identified as the potential invasive species for forest in Beijing.After extensive collection of related documents, investigation and study, and combined with bioecology characteristics of four species, it is identified that the means of spread are various and primarily by human, and the new epidemic areas emerged in a way of "jump" from one area to another area, and generally four species pervade in an active way near the epidemic area. Furthermore, for long distance transportation, Apriona swainsoni spreads by the means of seedling transportation, Hyphantria cunea spreads by the means of attachment to goods and vehicle and Bursaphelenchus xylophilus and Dendroctonus valens spreads by the means of infected seedling or solid wood packing material. A software,CLIMEX was used to make moderate area analysis and the results show that Beijing area exist four species moderate region.. After evaluation, the results show that the likely economic loss will reach to 169.4 million for Hyphantria cunea, 145.9 million for Bursaphelenchus xylophilus ,253.3 million for Dendroctonus valens and 84.9 million for Apriona swainsoni if the four species spread into Beijing area.Adopted internationally universal procedure and index system, corresponding evaluation standard was established. Specific quantitative index system to Beijing city was set. Furthermore, using this system to analyze the results show that the risk value of Dendroctonus valens, Hyphamtria cunea, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus and Apriona swainsoni to the Beijing area is 2.46, 2.30, 2.19 and 2.02, respectively. They are all harmful to Beijing area.Based on the risk assessment, the strategies of risk management which is quarantine-propagandizition-inspection -eradiation is porposed.