Early-warning Model Research On The Regional Water Resources Shortage And Empirical Research

Flood, water shortage and water pollution are identified as three big problems of our regional water resources. Finding the problems and abnormal condition in the process of exploitation and utilization of water resources, judging the influence to the human social and economic development, to avoid and reduce inflrence caused by the social and economic problems and the people's life, have become the important content of regional water resources warning theoretical research.Based on reference of literature at home and abroad,combining the practice of regional water resources warning management,this paper make deep research to regional water shortage warning management,apply system analysis and structural analysis theory, adopting the method of combining logic and empirical research, on the basis of the analysis of regional water resources shortage in the connotation and types, select the impact factor of regional water resources shortage, construct regional water resource shortage early-warning index system;At the same time, by using artificial neural network model with the structure and characteristics, and analysis of the feasibility of the combined with fuzzy mathematics, establish early warning model based on fuzzy neural network, Secondly, to aim at the shortages of long-term warning in the a rtificial neural network, expounds the multiple adaptive regression modeling process and mechanism,and establish the nonlinear, nonparameters multiple adaptive regression spline warning model with the characteristics of long-term warning, to judge regional water resources shortage risk degree of strength, and the possible the development trend, throughing the posteriori poor inspection index to test the validity of the model;Finally take yancheng city to empirical analysis, make qualitative and quantitative early-warning analysis of the shortage of water resources, find the countermeasures and measures to solve the water resources shortage in yancheng city, provide the technical support and scientific basis to water resources management in yancheng city for inspect and verify the scientificity and applicability of the research.