Research On Passenger Demand Forecast Of The Passenger Dedicated Line Based On Generalized Cost

Passenger Dedicated Line(PDL) is a fast,safe,comfortable,low power, high-capacity new mode of transport,it break the competitive pattern among traditional air, road, rail transport modes.Along with the construction and operation of the PDL,the different passenger transport products in the corridor are more competitive. Meanwhile,with the rapid development of the national economy and people's rising living standards, people request higher standard about the travel service and transportation environment.They require the transportation quality is not only safe, but also quick,comfort and convenient.At the same time,travel purposes of passengers are also more diverse, travel needs of passengers is no longer a derived demand, origin demand appears.Therefore, passenger transport enterprises should be oriented with passenger demand, track changes dynamic in passenger demand market at any time, adjust transport capacity, capacity configuration to adapt to market changes timely. So,mastery of PDL demand is a basic work of the operating,which is also the urgent problem that railway sector must think and solve.Firstly,this paper analyzed the formation of passenger demand and the influencing factors,and proposed passenger demand analysis content (passenger scale and passenger structure);Secondly, it proposed a passenger demand forecast method of PDL based on generalized cost after introducing high-speed railway passenger traffic forecasting methods with both domestic and abroad. This method divided passenger market from passenger revenue and run distance,guided by the passenger market survey,and constructed regression model,mode split model based on generalized cost, gravity model to predict the trend passenger traffic and induced passenger traffic. Mode split model is the core of this paper, it took into account both transport supply and demand factors, treated economy, rapidity, convenience, comfort and safety of the transport products quantitatively.Meanwhile, using fuzzy evaluation method and results of the passengers survey to evaluate the generalized cost;Finally,it took Wuhan-Guangzhou PDL as an example,analyzed the correlation coefficient of the models,calibrated the parameters, predicted passenger flow density of each section of it in 2010,2020 and 2030.The results showed that:demand of both high-speed flow and mid-speed flow will be great, PDL will share the majority of passenger flow in the transport corridor.Therefore, China should speed up the development of the PDL and distribute the ratio of high-speed EMU and mid-speed EMU in reason to meet the different needs of different travelers.