Risk Estimate Of Bulk Power System Based On MCMC

The purpose of the risk estimation is mainly to provide the comprehensive measurement of the probability and the severity for the uncertain factors in interconnected power systems and the risk indices. There are two traditional methods to estimate the risk of the bulk power system such as analytical method and MC simulation method. However, the analytical method is only applicable to the simple power system and the MC simulation has the disadvantages of low efficiency, high dimensional and static state. Therefore, a new risk estimation method based on MCMC is proposed in the paper. The result of the IEEE RTS 79 test system shows that the proposed MCMC method is efficient and stable in risk evaluation. The presented MCMC model improves the convergence, stability and computation speed of the risk estimation dramatically.